Australia vs Türkiye prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.36 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓
Value bet: Türkiye to win @ 1.70 – our chance 62% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Australia 0.8 – 1.8 Türkiye expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Türkiye travel as clear favourites – 62% to win, against 17% for Australia.
Australia have taken 7 points from their last 4 matches (2W 1D 1L), scoring 1.8 and conceding 0.8 per game. Türkiye have 12 points from their last 4 (4W 0D 0L), averaging 2.0 scored and 0.3 conceded. Türkiye come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.6 goals (0.8 for Australia, 1.8 for Türkiye). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 50%. Most likely scores: 0–1 (14%), 0–2 (12%), 1–1 (11%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 73% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.30 is close to our fair price of 1.36. For a bigger price, Türkiye to win at 1.70 is our value angle (62% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Türkiye to win ✗ | 62% | 1.60 | 1.70 ▲ |
| Double chance | Türkiye or draw ✗ | 83% | 1.20 | 1.14 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 50% | 1.99 | 1.85 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 72% | 1.39 | 1.33 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 53% | 1.90 | 1.80 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 73% | 1.36 | 1.30 |
| Half-time result | Türkiye ahead at half-time ✗ | 43% | 2.30 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Türkiye / FT Türkiye ✗ | 38% | 2.60 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 14% | 7.29 | – |
Form
Australia – last 4
| 6 Jun | @ Switzerland | 1–1 | D |
| 31 May | @ Mexico | 0–1 | L |
| 31 Mar | vs Curaçao | 5–1 | W |
| 27 Mar | vs Cameroon | 1–0 | W |
Türkiye – last 4
| 6 Jun | @ Venezuela | 2–1 | W |
| 1 Jun | vs FYR Macedonia | 4–0 | W |
| 31 Mar | @ Kosovo | 1–0 | W |
| 26 Mar | vs Romania | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Australia and Türkiye.
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Curaçao1
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Japan2Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Australia vs Türkiye?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Australia vs Türkiye?
On our numbers Australia have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Türkiye 62%.
How many goals will there be in Australia vs Türkiye?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
When is Australia vs Türkiye?
Australia vs Türkiye (World Cup) kicks off on Sunday 14 June 2026 at 05:00 (West Africa Time) at BC Place.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.