Al Ahli host Al Buqa'a in the League on Monday 4 May, with kick-off at 17:00 (WAT).
Form guide
Al Ahli's last 5: DWLDW Most recently they drew with Al Faisaly 2–2 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Al Buqa'a's last 5: WLDLL Most recently they beat Al Jazeera 2–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 2.3 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.6 for Al Ahli and 1.4 for Al Buqa'a. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 52% and both teams to score at 61%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Al Ahli 43%, draw 22%, Al Buqa'a 35%.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.73.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Al Ahli 1–1 Al Buqa'a. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Al Ahli43%fair 2.31 · @2.20
Draw22%fair 4.60 · @3.20
Al Buqa'a35%fair 2.86 · @2.80
2.93Expected goals
1.56Al Ahli xG
1.37Al Buqa'a xG
61%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
2–19%
1–08%
1–28%
0–17%
2–06%
From our goals model: Al Ahli 1.6 – 1.4 Al Buqa'a expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Al Ahli to win✓
43%
2.31
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.63
1.73 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.91
1.95
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
1.33
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
40%
2.49
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Al Ahli / FT Al Ahli✗
25%
4.02
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
9%
11.25
–
Form
Al Ahli – last 6
DWLDWD
24 Apr
vs Al Faisaly
2–2
D
14 Apr
@ Sama Al Sarhan
3–2
W
8 Apr
vs Al Hussein
0–1
L
3 Apr
@ Al Ramtha
1–1
D
16 Mar
@ Shabab Al Ordon
1–0
W
12 Mar
vs Al Salt
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Al Buqa'a – last 6
WLDLLW
16 Apr
@ Al Jazeera
2–1
W
9 Apr
vs Al Wihdat
1–5
L
3 Apr
vs Shabab Al Ordon
0–0
D
18 Mar
@ Al Faisaly
1–2
L
11 Mar
@ Al Hussein
1–5
L
3 Mar
vs Al Wihdat
3–1
W
1.3Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Al Ahli and Al Buqa'a.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Al Ahli vs Al Buqa'a?
On our numbers Al Ahli have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Al Buqa'a 35%.
How many goals will there be in Al Ahli vs Al Buqa'a?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Al Ahli vs Al Buqa'a?
Our predicted score is Al Ahli 1–1 Al Buqa'a, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Al Ahli vs Al Buqa'a?
Al Ahli vs Al Buqa'a (League) kicks off on Monday 4 May 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
