Ferroviario travel to face Piauí in the Serie D on Monday 11 May (23:00 WAT).
Form guide
Piauí's last 5: DLLLW Most recently they drew with AO Itabaiana 1–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Ferroviario's last 5: LDWLW Most recently they lost to ABC 1–4 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Ferroviario arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.4 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 1.4 for Piauí and 1.6 for Ferroviario. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 58% and both teams to score at 57%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 57% chance at odds of 1.85, above our fair price of 1.75, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Piauí 1–1 Ferroviario. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Piauí33%fair 3.04 · @3.00
Draw24%fair 4.21 · @2.80
Ferroviario43%fair 2.30 · @2.25
3.00Expected goals
1.38Piauí xG
1.62Ferroviario xG
57%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–29%
0–18%
2–18%
1–07%
0–27%
From our goals model: Piauí 1.4 – 1.6 Ferroviario expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ferroviario to win✗
43%
2.30
2.25
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.31
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.75
1.85 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
40%
2.53
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ferroviario / FT Ferroviario✗
26%
3.87
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.09
–
Form
Piauí – last 6
DLLLWL
30 Apr
vs AO Itabaiana
1–1
D
16 Apr
@ Vitoria
1–3
L
8 Apr
@ Fluminense PI
0–2
L
24 Mar
@ ASA
0–1
L
18 Mar
vs Atlético Piauiense
1–0
W
19 Feb
@ Betim
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Ferroviario – last 5
LDWLW
30 Apr
@ ABC
1–4
L
15 Apr
vs Retrô
1–1
D
7 Apr
vs Jacuipense
1–0
W
25 Mar
vs Fortaleza EC
0–1
L
26 Feb
vs Floresta
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
40%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Piauí and Ferroviario.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Piauí vs Ferroviario?
On our numbers Piauí have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Ferroviario 43%.
How many goals will there be in Piauí vs Ferroviario?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Piauí vs Ferroviario?
Our predicted score is Piauí 1–1 Ferroviario, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Piauí vs Ferroviario?
Piauí vs Ferroviario (Serie D) kicks off on Monday 11 May 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Serie D · Brazil
