Sweden vs Poland prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.34 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Poland to win @ 3.70 – our chance 38% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +40%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Sweden 1.3 – 1.3 Poland expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Sweden and Poland on our numbers – 39% for the home side, 38% for the visitors and 23% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Sweden have taken 3 points from their last 1 matches (1W 0D 0L), scoring 3.0 and conceding 1.0 per game. Poland have 3 points from their last 1 (1W 0D 0L), averaging 2.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
We expect around 2.6 goals (1.3 for Sweden, 1.3 for Poland). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 52%. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 1–0 (10%), 0–1 (9%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 74% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is close to our fair price of 1.34. For a bigger price, Poland to win at 3.70 is our value angle (38% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Sweden to win ✓ | 39% | 2.55 | 1.98 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 77% | 1.30 | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 52% | 1.91 | 1.90 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 71% | 1.41 | 1.38 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 53% | 1.87 | 1.70 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 74% | 1.34 | 1.25 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 43% | 2.32 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Sweden / FT Sweden ✓ | 22% | 4.61 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 10% | 10.28 | – |
Form
Sweden – last 1
| 26 Mar | @ Ukraine | 3–1 | W |
Poland – last 1
| 26 Mar | vs Albania | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sweden and Poland.
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What is the prediction for Sweden vs Poland?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Sweden vs Poland?
On our numbers Sweden have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Poland 38%.
How many goals will there be in Sweden vs Poland?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
When is Sweden vs Poland?
Sweden vs Poland (World Cup Qualification Europe) kicks off on Tuesday 31 March 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Strawberry Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.