Value bet: Primavera MG to win @ 3.50 – our chance 32% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultOperario Ferroviario to win ✓45% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · fair 1.29
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.83
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.93
Operario Ferroviario vs Primavera MG preview and prediction
The match
The sees Operario Ferroviario take on Primavera MG on Friday 17 April, kicking off at 00:30 (WAT) at Estadio Jacques da Luz.
Form guide
Operario Ferroviario's last 5: DWLWW Most recently they drew with Rio Branco ES 1–1 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Primavera MG's last 5: DDLLL Most recently they drew with Vila Nova 2–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Operario Ferroviario arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 1.7 for Operario Ferroviario and 1.4 for Primavera MG. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score in 57% of our simulations.
Value angle: Primavera MG to win at 3.50 – 32% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Operario Ferroviario 1–1 Primavera MG. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Operario Ferroviario45%fair 2.20 · @2.00
Draw22%fair 4.45 · @3.00
Primavera MG32%fair 3.12 · @3.50
3.07Expected goals
1.69Operario Ferroviario xG
1.38Primavera MG xG
57%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
2–19%
1–08%
1–27%
2–07%
0–16%
From our goals model: Operario Ferroviario 1.7 – 1.4 Primavera MG expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Operario Ferroviario to win✓
45%
2.20
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.76
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.92
2.10 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
69%
1.45
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
39%
2.56
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Operario Ferroviario / FT Operario Ferroviario✗
27%
3.69
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.93
–
Form
Operario Ferroviario – last 6
DWLWWW
10 Apr
vs Rio Branco ES
1–1
D
3 Apr
vs Bataguassu
2–1
W
29 Mar
@ Vila Nova
0–6
L
25 Mar
@ Araguaína
1–0
W
19 Mar
vs Corumbaense
1–0
W
28 Feb
vs Bataguassu
3–2
W
1.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Primavera MG – last 6
DDLLLW
8 Apr
vs Vila Nova
2–2
D
5 Apr
@ Brasiliense
1–1
D
29 Mar
vs Araguaína
0–2
L
25 Mar
@ Capital Brasilia
3–4
L
25 Feb
@ Atletico Goianiense
0–1
L
20 Feb
vs Bragantino PA
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Operario Ferroviario and Primavera MG.
What is the prediction for Operario Ferroviario vs Primavera MG?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Operario Ferroviario vs Primavera MG?
On our numbers Operario Ferroviario have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Primavera MG 32%.
How many goals will there be in Operario Ferroviario vs Primavera MG?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Operario Ferroviario vs Primavera MG?
Our predicted score is Operario Ferroviario 1–1 Primavera MG, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Operario Ferroviario vs Primavera MG?
Operario Ferroviario vs Primavera MG () kicks off on Friday 17 April 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Jacques da Luz.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
