Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.91 – our chance 59% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultPrimavera MG to win ✗66% · @1.60
Double chancePrimavera MG or draw ✓85% · @1.10
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.91
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗10% · fair 10.21
Primavera MG vs Vila Nova preview and prediction
The match
Vila Nova travel to face Primavera MG in the on Wednesday 8 April (23:00 WAT).
Form guide
Primavera MG's last 5: DLLLW Most recently they drew with Brasiliense 1–1 away. They average 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Vila Nova's last 5: WDWLD Most recently they beat Atletico Goianiense 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game.
Vila Nova arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.3 goals: 2.3 for Primavera MG and 1.0 for Vila Nova. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score in 59% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Primavera MG 66%, draw 19%, Vila Nova 15%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.91.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.91 – 59% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Primavera MG 2–0 Vila Nova. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Primavera MG66%fair 1.51 · @1.60
Draw19%fair 5.29 · @3.60
Vila Nova15%fair 6.74 · @5.10
3.29Expected goals
2.29Primavera MG xG
1.00Vila Nova xG
59%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–010%
2–110%
1–09%
1–19%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Primavera MG 2.3 – 1.0 Vila Nova expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Primavera MG to win✗
66%
1.51
1.60 ▲
Double chance
Primavera MG or draw✓
85%
1.17
1.10
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.69
1.91 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.80
1.95 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
66%
1.52
1.28
Half-time result
Primavera MG ahead at half-time✗
49%
2.04
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Primavera MG / FT Primavera MG✗
44%
2.29
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
10%
10.21
–
Form
Primavera MG – last 5
DLLLW
5 Apr
@ Brasiliense
1–1
D
29 Mar
vs Araguaína
0–2
L
25 Mar
@ Capital Brasilia
3–4
L
25 Feb
@ Atletico Goianiense
0–1
L
20 Feb
vs Bragantino PA
2–1
W
1.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
60%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Vila Nova – last 6
WDWLDW
5 Apr
vs Atletico Goianiense
2–1
W
1 Apr
@ Sport Recife
1–1
D
29 Mar
vs Operario Ferroviario
6–0
W
22 Feb
@ Atletico Goianiense
0–2
L
16 Feb
vs Anápolis
2–2
D
13 Feb
@ Anápolis
2–0
W
2.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Primavera MG and Vila Nova.
What is the prediction for Primavera MG vs Vila Nova?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Primavera MG vs Vila Nova?
On our numbers Primavera MG have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Vila Nova 15%.
How many goals will there be in Primavera MG vs Vila Nova?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Primavera MG vs Vila Nova?
Our predicted score is Primavera MG 2–0 Vila Nova, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Primavera MG vs Vila Nova?
Primavera MG vs Vila Nova () kicks off on Wednesday 8 April 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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