Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Tombense to win @ 1.91 – our chance 61% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultTombense to win ✗61% · @1.91
Double chanceTombense or draw ✓82% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.16
Tombense vs America Mineiro preview and prediction
The match
The sees Tombense take on America Mineiro on Thursday 9 April, kicking off at 01:15 (WAT) at Estadio Antonio Guimaraes de Almeida.
Form guide
Tombense's last 5: WLLLD Most recently they beat Avai 3–2 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded.
America Mineiro's last 5: DLLDD Most recently they drew with Athletic Club 1–1 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.4 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.9 for Tombense and 0.9 for America Mineiro. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Tombense 61%, draw 21%, America Mineiro 18%.
Safer route: Tombense or draw (82%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Tombense to win at 1.91 – 61% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Tombense or draw – a 82% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.22, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Tombense 1–0 America Mineiro. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Tombense61%fair 1.65 · @1.91
Draw21%fair 4.73 · @3.20
America Mineiro18%fair 5.45 · @3.50
2.75Expected goals
1.85Tombense xG
0.90America Mineiro xG
55%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–012%
2–011%
1–111%
2–110%
3–07%
0–06%
From our goals model: Tombense 1.9 – 0.9 America Mineiro expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tombense to win✗
61%
1.65
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Tombense or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.82
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.93
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
70%
1.42
–
Half-time result
Tombense ahead at half-time✓
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Tombense / FT Tombense✗
38%
2.66
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.16
–
Form
Tombense – last 5
WLLLD
26 Mar
vs Avai
3–2
W
12 Mar
@ Confiança
0–2
L
1 Mar
@ Uniao Trabalhadores
1–3
L
20 Feb
vs Uniao Trabalhadores
0–1
L
14 Feb
@ Athletic Club
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
60%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
America Mineiro – last 5
DLLDD
6 Apr
@ Athletic Club
1–1
D
1 Apr
vs Botafogo SP
1–2
L
29 Mar
vs Caxias
1–2
L
26 Mar
@ Novorizontino
1–1
D
22 Feb
@ Atletico-MG
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
100%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tombense and America Mineiro.
What is the prediction for Tombense vs America Mineiro?
Our pick is Tombense or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Tombense vs America Mineiro?
On our numbers Tombense have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 21% and America Mineiro 18%.
How many goals will there be in Tombense vs America Mineiro?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tombense vs America Mineiro?
Our predicted score is Tombense 1–0 America Mineiro, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Tombense vs America Mineiro?
Tombense vs America Mineiro () kicks off on Thursday 9 April 2026 at 01:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Antonio Guimaraes de Almeida.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Cianorte0
Operario-PR0