Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗52% · @1.48
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗14% · fair 7.00
Paysandu vs Independência preview and prediction
The match
Paysandu host Independência in the on Wednesday 15 April, with kick-off at 23:00 (WAT) at Leonidas Sodre de Castro.
Form guide
Paysandu's last 5: LWLWW Most recently they lost to Nacional AM 0–7 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Independência's last 5: LDLWL Most recently they lost to Trem 0–4 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.6 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Paysandu arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 2.2 for Paysandu and 0.6 for Independência. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 48%.
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Paysandu 2–0 Independência. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Paysandu71%fair 1.41 · @1.18
Draw22%fair 4.59 · @5.50
Independência7%fair 13.75 · @15.00
2.81Expected goals
2.18Paysandu xG
0.63Independência xG
48%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–014%
1–013%
3–010%
2–19%
1–18%
3–17%
From our goals model: Paysandu 2.2 – 0.6 Independência expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Paysandu to win✓
71%
1.41
1.18
Double chance
Paysandu or draw✓
93%
1.08
–
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
52%
1.91
1.48
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.82
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
1.45
Half-time result
Paysandu ahead at half-time✗
52%
1.92
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Paysandu / FT Paysandu✗
48%
2.06
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
14%
7.00
–
Form
Paysandu – last 6
LWLWWW
10 Apr
@ Nacional AM
0–7
L
5 Apr
@ Volta Redonda
1–0
W
1 Apr
@ Guaporé
0–1
L
18 Mar
@ Portuguesa
3–2
W
12 Mar
vs Portuguesa RJ
3–1
W
22 Feb
vs Castanhal
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Independência – last 5
LDLWL
8 Apr
@ Trem
0–4
L
26 Mar
vs Guaporé
0–0
D
6 Mar
vs Galvez
1–2
L
3 Mar
@ ADESG
2–0
W
26 Feb
@ Águia de Marabá
0–2
L
0.6Scored / game
1.6Conceded / game
20%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Paysandu and Independência.
What is the prediction for Paysandu vs Independência?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Paysandu vs Independência?
On our numbers Paysandu have a 71% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Independência 7%.
How many goals will there be in Paysandu vs Independência?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Paysandu vs Independência?
Our predicted score is Paysandu 2–0 Independência, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Paysandu vs Independência?
Paysandu vs Independência () kicks off on Wednesday 15 April 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Leonidas Sodre de Castro.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
