Independência vs Nacional AM prediction & analysis
66%
Footrivo pick
Under 3.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.70
6/10Rating
1.70Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultNacional AM to win75% · @1.17
Double chanceNacional AM or draw93% · @1.01
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score50% · @1.95
GoalsOver 1.5 goals74% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–118% · fair 5.64
Independência vs Nacional AM preview and prediction
The match
Nacional AM travel to face Independência in the on Sunday 29 March (22:00 WAT).
Form guide
Independência's last 4: DLWL Most recently they drew with Guaporé 0–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Nacional AM's last 5: WWWLL Most recently they beat Trem 2–1 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Nacional AM arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 0.4 for Independência and 2.0 for Nacional AM. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 50%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Independência 7%, draw 18%, Nacional AM 75%.
Both teams to score: yes (50%) at 1.95.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 66% chance at odds of 1.70, above our fair price of 1.51, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Independência 0–1 Nacional AM. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Independência7%fair 14.69 · @14.00
Draw18%fair 5.43 · @5.75
Nacional AM75%fair 1.34 · @1.17
2.42Expected goals
0.43Independência xG
1.99Nacional AM xG
50%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–118%
0–218%
0–312%
0–09%
1–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Independência 0.4 – 2.0 Nacional AM expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Nacional AM to win
75%
1.34
1.17
Double chance
Nacional AM or draw
93%
1.07
1.01
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
50%
1.99
1.95
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
74%
1.35
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
54%
1.85
1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
66%
1.51
1.70 ▲
Half-time result
Nacional AM ahead at half-time
52%
1.93
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Nacional AM / FT Nacional AM
49%
2.04
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1
18%
5.64
–
Form
Independência – last 4
DLWL
26 Mar
vs Guaporé
0–0
D
6 Mar
vs Galvez
1–2
L
3 Mar
@ ADESG
2–0
W
26 Feb
@ Águia de Marabá
0–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Nacional AM – last 5
WWWLL
27 Mar
vs Trem
2–1
W
9 Mar
@ Manauara
1–0
W
6 Mar
vs Amazonas
3–0
W
25 Feb
@ Novorizontino
0–4
L
20 Feb
vs Manaus FC
0–1
L
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
20%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Independência and Nacional AM.
What is the prediction for Independência vs Nacional AM?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Independência vs Nacional AM?
On our numbers Independência have a 7% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Nacional AM 75%.
How many goals will there be in Independência vs Nacional AM?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Independência vs Nacional AM?
Our predicted score is Independência 0–1 Nacional AM, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Independência vs Nacional AM?
Independência vs Nacional AM () kicks off on Sunday 29 March 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Remo1
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