Value bet: Pafos to win @ 1.75 – our chance 63% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultPafos to win ✓63% · @1.75
Double chancePafos or draw ✓82% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.70
AEL vs Pafos preview and prediction
The match
The Cup sees AEL take on Pafos on Wednesday 8 April, kicking off at 17:00 (WAT) at Alphamega Stadium.
Form guide
AEL's last 4: DLWL Most recently they drew with Ethnikos Achna 1–1 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Pafos's last 4: DDDW Most recently they drew with Apollon Limassol 1–1 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Pafos arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 1.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 15 February 2026, finished AEL 0–1 Pafos.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 0.8 for AEL and 1.8 for Pafos. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 56%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: AEL 18%, draw 19%, Pafos 63%.
Safer route: Pafos or draw (82%) at 1.15.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.73.
Value angle: Pafos to win at 1.75 – 63% on our numbers against 57% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: AEL 0–2 Pafos. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
AEL18%fair 5.51 · @4.20
Draw19%fair 5.18 · @3.45
Pafos63%fair 1.60 · @1.75
2.64Expected goals
0.82AEL xG
1.82Pafos xG
56%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–113%
0–212%
1–111%
1–210%
0–07%
0–37%
From our goals model: AEL 0.8 – 1.8 Pafos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win AEL vs Pafos?
On our numbers AEL have a 18% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Pafos 63%.
How many goals will there be in AEL vs Pafos?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AEL vs Pafos?
Our predicted score is AEL 0–2 Pafos, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is AEL vs Pafos?
AEL vs Pafos (Cup) kicks off on Wednesday 8 April 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Alphamega Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
