Value bet: PAOK to win @ 1.67 – our chance 65% vs 60% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultPAOK to win ✗65% · @1.67
Double chancePAOK or draw ✓85% · @1.12
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.61
PAOK vs AEK Athens FC preview and prediction
The match
The Super League 1 sees PAOK take on AEK Athens FC on Wednesday 13 May, kicking off at 17:30 (WAT) at Toumba Stadium. PAOK are 4th with 19 points from 10 games (in the top four), while AEK Athens FC sit 3rd on 20 points (in the top four). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
PAOK's last 5: LDWWW Most recently they lost to AEK Athens FC 0–3 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
AEK Athens FC's last 5: WWLWL Most recently they beat PAOK 3–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 19 April 2026, finished AEK Athens FC 3–0 PAOK. Across their last 2 meetings PAOK have won 0, AEK Athens FC 1, with 1 draw and 1.5 goals per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.8 for PAOK and 0.7 for AEK Athens FC. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: PAOK 65%, draw 20%, AEK Athens FC 15%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.80.
Value angle: PAOK to win at 1.67 – 65% on our numbers against 60% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: PAOK 1–0 AEK Athens FC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
PAOK65%fair 1.54 · @1.67
Draw20%fair 4.91 · @3.55
AEK Athens FC15%fair 6.80 · @4.80
2.56Expected goals
1.84PAOK xG
0.72AEK Athens FC xG
53%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–013%
1–110%
2–19%
3–08%
0–08%
From our goals model: PAOK 1.8 – 0.7 AEK Athens FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win PAOK vs AEK Athens FC?
On our numbers PAOK have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 20% and AEK Athens FC 15%.
How many goals will there be in PAOK vs AEK Athens FC?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for PAOK vs AEK Athens FC?
Our predicted score is PAOK 1–0 AEK Athens FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is PAOK vs AEK Athens FC?
PAOK vs AEK Athens FC (Super League 1) kicks off on Wednesday 13 May 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Toumba Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
