Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Genk to win @ 1.90 – our chance 58% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultGenk to win ✗58% · @1.90
Double chanceGenk or draw ✓82% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.27
Genk vs Charleroi preview and prediction
The match
Genk host Charleroi in the Jupiler Pro League on Tuesday 21 April, with kick-off at 19:30 (WAT) at Cegeka Arena. Genk are 7th with 15 points from 11 games (in the top half), while Charleroi sit 4th on 27 points (in the top four). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Genk's last 5: WLWWW Most recently they beat Antwerp 2–1 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Charleroi's last 4: WLLL Most recently they beat Antwerp 2–1 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Genk arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.9 for Genk and 1.0 for Charleroi. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 61%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Genk 58%, draw 24%, Charleroi 18%.
Safer route: Genk or draw (82%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.57.
Value angle: Genk to win at 1.90 – 58% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Genk or draw – a 82% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.22, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Genk 1–0 Charleroi. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Genk58%fair 1.73 · @1.90
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.60
Charleroi18%fair 5.51 · @3.75
2.86Expected goals
1.89Genk xG
0.98Charleroi xG
61%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–011%
1–111%
2–010%
2–110%
3–06%
3–16%
From our goals model: Genk 1.9 – 1.0 Charleroi expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Genk to win✗
58%
1.73
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Genk or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.64
1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.82
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.45
Half-time result
Genk ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Genk / FT Genk✗
37%
2.71
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
9.27
–
Form
Genk – last 6
WLWWWL
3 Apr
@ Antwerp
2–1
W
19 Mar
@ SC Freiburg
1–5
L
15 Mar
vs St. Truiden
1–0
W
12 Mar
vs SC Freiburg
1–0
W
1 Mar
vs Gent
3–0
W
26 Feb
vs Dinamo Zagreb
1–3
L
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Charleroi – last 4
WLLL
10 Apr
vs Antwerp
2–1
W
5 Apr
@ KVC Westerlo
0–2
L
1 Mar
vs Club Brugge KV
1–2
L
22 Feb
@ KVC Westerlo
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
75%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Genk and Charleroi.
Our pick is Genk or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Genk vs Charleroi?
On our numbers Genk have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Charleroi 18%.
How many goals will there be in Genk vs Charleroi?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Genk vs Charleroi?
Our predicted score is Genk 1–0 Charleroi, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Genk vs Charleroi?
Genk vs Charleroi (Jupiler Pro League) kicks off on Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Cegeka Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
