Nosta travel to face Orenburg II in the Second League Group 4 on Sunday 3 May (14:00 WAT). Orenburg II are 7th with 26 points from 22 games (in the bottom half), while Nosta sit 11th on 18 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Orenburg II's last 5: DWDDW Most recently they drew with Dinamo Barnaul 1–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Nosta's last 5: DLWDL Most recently they drew with Rubin Kazan 2 2–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Orenburg II arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.7 goals: 2.6 for Orenburg II and 1.1 for Nosta. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 71% and both teams to score at 65%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Orenburg II 68%, draw 20%, Nosta 11%.
Safer route: Orenburg II or draw (89%) at 1.13.
Both teams to score: yes (65%) at 1.36.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Orenburg II to win – a 68% chance at odds of 1.56, above our fair price of 1.46, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Orenburg II 2–1 Nosta. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Orenburg II68%fair 1.46 · @1.56
Draw20%fair 4.97 · @4.10
Nosta11%fair 8.71 · @4.40
3.75Expected goals
2.65Orenburg II xG
1.10Nosta xG
65%Both score
71%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–19%
2–08%
3–18%
3–07%
1–17%
1–06%
From our goals model: Orenburg II 2.6 – 1.1 Nosta expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Orenburg II to win✓
68%
1.46
1.56 ▲
Double chance
Orenburg II or draw✓
89%
1.13
1.13
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
65%
1.53
1.36
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
89%
1.13
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.30
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
52%
1.94
1.79
Half-time result
Orenburg II ahead at half-time✓
53%
1.89
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Orenburg II / FT Orenburg II✓
48%
2.09
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.00
–
Form
Orenburg II – last 5
DWDDW
29 Apr
vs Dinamo Barnaul
1–1
D
26 Apr
vs Akron II
3–1
W
19 Apr
@ Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod
2–2
D
13 Apr
vs Ural II
2–2
D
5 Apr
@ Chelyabinsk II
1–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
80%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Nosta – last 5
DLWDL
29 Apr
vs Rubin Kazan 2
2–2
D
26 Apr
@ Krylya Sovetov II
2–4
L
19 Apr
@ Dinamo Barnaul
3–2
W
12 Apr
vs Akron II
2–2
D
5 Apr
@ Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod
1–4
L
2.0Scored / game
2.8Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Orenburg II and Nosta.
Our pick is Orenburg II to win with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.56.
Who will win Orenburg II vs Nosta?
On our numbers Orenburg II have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Nosta 11%.
How many goals will there be in Orenburg II vs Nosta?
We expect about 3.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 71% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Orenburg II vs Nosta?
Our predicted score is Orenburg II 2–1 Nosta, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.7 goals in total.
When is Orenburg II vs Nosta?
Orenburg II vs Nosta (Second League Group 4) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
