Metallurg Lipetsk vs Zenit Penza prediction & analysis
65%
Footrivo pick
Metallurg Lipetsk to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.69 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.69Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultMetallurg Lipetsk to win ✓65% · @1.69
Double chanceEither team to win ✓85% · @1.27
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · @1.16
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✓10% · fair 9.59
Metallurg Lipetsk vs Zenit Penza preview and prediction
The match
Metallurg Lipetsk host Zenit Penza in the Second League Group 3 on Saturday 3 October, with kick-off at 12:00 (WAT) at Stadion Metallurg. Metallurg Lipetsk are 7th with 38 points from 22 games (in the top half), while Zenit Penza sit 12th on 23 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 15 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Metallurg Lipetsk's last 5: DWWLL Most recently they drew with Arsenal Tula II 0–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Zenit Penza's last 5: LDDLW Most recently they lost to Ryazan 0–2 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 13 June 2026, finished Zenit Penza 2–3 Metallurg Lipetsk.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 2.0 for Metallurg Lipetsk and 1.0 for Zenit Penza. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score in 61% of our simulations.
Our pre-match pick was Metallurg Lipetsk to win – a 65% chance at odds of 1.69, above our fair price of 1.54, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Metallurg Lipetsk 2–0 Zenit Penza. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Metallurg Lipetsk65%fair 1.54 · @1.69
Draw15%fair 6.63 · @4.39
Zenit Penza20%fair 4.98 · @4.36
2.97Expected goals
2.01Metallurg Lipetsk xG
0.95Zenit Penza xG
61%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–010%
1–010%
2–110%
1–110%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Metallurg Lipetsk 2.0 – 1.0 Zenit Penza expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Metallurg Lipetsk vs Zenit Penza?
Our pick is Metallurg Lipetsk to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.69.
Who will win Metallurg Lipetsk vs Zenit Penza?
On our numbers Metallurg Lipetsk have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Zenit Penza 20%.
How many goals will there be in Metallurg Lipetsk vs Zenit Penza?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Metallurg Lipetsk vs Zenit Penza?
Our predicted score is Metallurg Lipetsk 2–0 Zenit Penza, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Metallurg Lipetsk vs Zenit Penza?
Metallurg Lipetsk vs Zenit Penza (Second League Group 3) kicks off on Saturday 3 October 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Metallurg.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
