Zenit Penza vs Metallurg Lipetsk prediction & analysis
64%
Footrivo pick
Under 3.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.57 · bookmaker 1.46 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.46Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.60 – our chance 51% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +32%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultMetallurg Lipetsk to win ✓74% · @1.13
Double chanceMetallurg Lipetsk or draw ✓90% · fair 1.11
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @2.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.16
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–2 ✗13% · fair 7.47
Zenit Penza vs Metallurg Lipetsk preview and prediction
The match
The Second League Group 3 sees Zenit Penza take on Metallurg Lipetsk on Saturday 13 June, kicking off at 14:00 (WAT). Zenit Penza are 12th with 23 points from 21 games (in the bottom half), while Metallurg Lipetsk sit 7th on 38 points (in the top half). A gap of 15 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Zenit Penza's last 5: LDWLL Most recently they lost to Saturn Ramenskoye 0–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Metallurg Lipetsk's last 5: WDWDL Most recently they beat Arsenal Tula II 3–1 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Metallurg Lipetsk arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 0.7 for Zenit Penza and 2.3 for Metallurg Lipetsk. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score in 51% of our simulations.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.60 – 51% on our numbers against 38% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 64% chance at odds of 1.46. Predicted score: Zenit Penza 0–2 Metallurg Lipetsk. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Zenit Penza10%fair 9.81 · @16.00
Draw16%fair 6.42 · @6.05
Metallurg Lipetsk74%fair 1.35 · @1.13
2.97Expected goals
0.69Zenit Penza xG
2.29Metallurg Lipetsk xG
51%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–213%
0–112%
0–310%
1–29%
1–18%
1–37%
From our goals model: Zenit Penza 0.7 – 2.3 Metallurg Lipetsk expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Metallurg Lipetsk to win✓
74%
1.35
1.13
Double chance
Metallurg Lipetsk or draw✓
90%
1.11
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.97
2.60 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.16
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.74
1.60
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
64%
1.57
1.46
Half-time result
Metallurg Lipetsk ahead at half-time✓
53%
1.88
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Metallurg Lipetsk / FT Metallurg Lipetsk✓
49%
2.03
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–2✗
13%
7.47
–
Form
Zenit Penza – last 6
LDWLLW
6 Jun
@ Saturn Ramenskoye
0–1
L
31 May
@ Arsenal Tula II
1–1
D
23 May
vs Strogino
1–0
W
15 May
@ SKA Khabarovsk II
0–5
L
8 May
vs Shumbrat
1–3
L
4 Apr
vs Rotor-2
2–0
W
0.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Metallurg Lipetsk – last 6
WDWDLW
6 Jun
vs Arsenal Tula II
3–1
W
30 May
@ Strogino
2–2
D
23 May
vs SKA Khabarovsk II
4–0
W
20 May
@ Avangard Kursk
1–1
D
8 May
vs FK Spartak Tambov
0–1
L
5 Apr
vs Kvant
2–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Zenit Penza and Metallurg Lipetsk.
What is the prediction for Zenit Penza vs Metallurg Lipetsk?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.46.
Who will win Zenit Penza vs Metallurg Lipetsk?
On our numbers Zenit Penza have a 10% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Metallurg Lipetsk 74%.
How many goals will there be in Zenit Penza vs Metallurg Lipetsk?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Zenit Penza vs Metallurg Lipetsk?
Our predicted score is Zenit Penza 0–2 Metallurg Lipetsk, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Zenit Penza vs Metallurg Lipetsk?
Zenit Penza vs Metallurg Lipetsk (Second League Group 3) kicks off on Saturday 13 June 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
