Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.15 – our chance 51% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSevastopol to win ✓66% · @1.29
Double chanceSevastopol or draw ✓86% · @1.01
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @2.15
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.50
Sevastopol vs Pobeda preview and prediction
The match
Pobeda travel to Sportyvnyj Kompleks in the Second League Group 1 on Saturday 13 June (14:00 WAT) to face Sevastopol. Sevastopol are 1st with 50 points from 21 games (top of the table), while Pobeda sit 5th on 33 points (in the top half). A gap of 17 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Sevastopol's last 5: WDWLW Most recently they beat Nart Cherkessk 1–0 away. They average 1.4 scored and 0.4 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Pobeda's last 5: LWWLL Most recently they lost to Shahter Taganrog 1–3 away. They are scoring freely – 2.4 goals a game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Sevastopol arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.9 for Sevastopol and 0.7 for Pobeda. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 51%.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.15 – 51% on our numbers against 47% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.21. Predicted score: Sevastopol 2–0 Pobeda. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sevastopol66%fair 1.53 · @1.29
Draw20%fair 5.00 · @4.15
Pobeda14%fair 6.94 · @10.50
2.66Expected goals
1.92Sevastopol xG
0.75Pobeda xG
51%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–013%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Sevastopol 1.9 – 0.7 Pobeda expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sevastopol to win✓
66%
1.53
1.29
Double chance
Sevastopol or draw✓
86%
1.17
1.01
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.94
2.15 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.21
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.95
1.75
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.44
1.36
Half-time result
Sevastopol ahead at half-time✓
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sevastopol / FT Sevastopol✓
41%
2.41
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.50
–
Form
Sevastopol – last 5
WDWLW
6 Jun
@ Nart Cherkessk
1–0
W
30 May
vs Druzhba
0–0
D
23 May
@ Kyzyltash
2–0
W
8 May
@ Rubin Yalta
0–1
L
28 Mar
@ Lugansk
4–1
W
1.4Scored / game
0.4Conceded / game
20%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Pobeda – last 5
LWWLL
30 May
@ Shahter Taganrog
1–3
L
23 May
vs Izberbash
7–0
W
8 May
vs Dynamo Makhachkala II
3–0
W
4 Apr
@ Spartak Nalchik
1–4
L
28 Mar
vs Angust Nazran
0–1
L
2.4Scored / game
1.6Conceded / game
40%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sevastopol and Pobeda.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.21.
Who will win Sevastopol vs Pobeda?
On our numbers Sevastopol have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Pobeda 14%.
How many goals will there be in Sevastopol vs Pobeda?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sevastopol vs Pobeda?
Our predicted score is Sevastopol 2–0 Pobeda, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Sevastopol vs Pobeda?
Sevastopol vs Pobeda (Second League Group 1) kicks off on Saturday 13 June 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Sportyvnyj Kompleks.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
