Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.41 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.41Odds
2
Value bet: Rodina Moskva to win @ 3.56 – our chance 32% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultFakel to win ✗43% · @2.27
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.39
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.98
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗80% · @1.15
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.48
Fakel vs Rodina Moskva preview and prediction
The match
Rodina Moskva travel to Fakel Stadium in the First League on Monday 13 April (17:45 WAT) to face Fakel.
Form guide
Fakel's last 4: WWLW Most recently they beat Arsenal Tula 2–1 away. They average 1.3 scored and 0.5 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Rodina Moskva's last 5: WWWDW Most recently they beat FK Sokol Saratov 3–1 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.8 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.2 for Fakel and 1.0 for Rodina Moskva. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 61% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Fakel 43%, draw 25%, Rodina Moskva 32%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.98.
Value angle: Rodina Moskva to win at 3.56 – 32% on our numbers against 28% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 64% chance at odds of 1.41. Predicted score: Fakel 1–1 Rodina Moskva. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Fakel43%fair 2.34 · @2.27
Draw25%fair 4.00 · @2.79
Rodina Moskva32%fair 3.11 · @3.56
2.20Expected goals
1.20Fakel xG
0.99Rodina Moskva xG
54%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
1–113%
0–011%
0–111%
2–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Fakel 1.2 – 1.0 Rodina Moskva expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Fakel to win✗
43%
2.34
2.27
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.39
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.85
1.98 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
64%
1.56
1.41
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
61%
1.63
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
80%
1.25
1.15
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.11
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Fakel / FT Fakel✗
23%
4.29
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.48
–
Form
Fakel – last 4
WWLW
5 Apr
@ Arsenal Tula
2–1
W
1 Apr
@ FK Neftekhimik
2–0
W
20 Mar
@ Rotor Volgograd
0–1
L
27 Feb
vs Ural
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Rodina Moskva – last 6
WWWDWW
5 Apr
@ FK Sokol Saratov
3–1
W
29 Mar
vs Ural
3–1
W
23 Mar
vs Chayka
5–2
W
14 Mar
@ Ska-khabarovsk
2–2
D
8 Mar
@ Torpedo Moskva
2–0
W
2 Mar
vs Shinnik Yaroslavl
2–1
W
2.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Fakel and Rodina Moskva.
What is the prediction for Fakel vs Rodina Moskva?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.41.
Who will win Fakel vs Rodina Moskva?
On our numbers Fakel have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Rodina Moskva 32%.
How many goals will there be in Fakel vs Rodina Moskva?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Fakel vs Rodina Moskva?
Our predicted score is Fakel 1–1 Rodina Moskva, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Fakel vs Rodina Moskva?
Fakel vs Rodina Moskva (First League) kicks off on Monday 13 April 2026 at 17:45 (West Africa Time) at Fakel Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
