Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
2
Value bet: Corinthians to win @ 3.35 – our chance 38% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +28%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCorinthians to win ✗38% · @3.35
Double chanceEither team to win ✗74% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @2.15
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · @1.14
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.67
Penarol vs Corinthians preview and prediction
The match
The CONMEBOL Libertadores sees Penarol take on Corinthians on Friday 22 May, kicking off at 01:30 (WAT) at Estadio Campeón del Siglo. Penarol are 4th with 3 points from 6 games, while Corinthians sit 1st on 11 points.
Form guide
Penarol's last 5: WDDLD Most recently they beat Cerro Largo 3–2 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Corinthians's last 5: LWDLW Most recently they lost to Botafogo 1–3 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Corinthians arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 1 May 2026, finished Corinthians 2–0 Penarol.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.0 for Penarol and 1.1 for Corinthians. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 65% likely.
Value angle: Corinthians to win at 3.35 – 38% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 65% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: Penarol 1–1 Corinthians. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Penarol36%fair 2.77 · @2.32
Draw26%fair 3.87 · @2.96
Corinthians38%fair 2.62 · @3.35
2.11Expected goals
1.03Penarol xG
1.08Corinthians xG
51%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–113%
1–013%
0–012%
1–27%
0–27%
From our goals model: Penarol 1.0 – 1.1 Corinthians expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Penarol vs Corinthians?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Penarol vs Corinthians?
On our numbers Penarol have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Corinthians 38%.
How many goals will there be in Penarol vs Corinthians?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Penarol vs Corinthians?
Our predicted score is Penarol 1–1 Corinthians, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Penarol vs Corinthians?
Penarol vs Corinthians (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Friday 22 May 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Campeón del Siglo.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
U. Catolica2
Barcelona SC0