Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: Junior to win @ 3.85 – our chance 32% vs 26% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCerro Porteno to win ✓46% · @1.99
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓16% · fair 6.41
Cerro Porteno vs Junior preview and prediction
The match
Junior travel to General Pablo Rojas in the CONMEBOL Libertadores on Tuesday 14 April (23:00 WAT) to face Cerro Porteno. Cerro Porteno are 1st with 13 points from 6 games, while Junior sit 4th on 4 points.
Form guide
Cerro Porteno's last 5: DLWWW Most recently they drew with Nacional Asuncion 0–0 away. They average 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Junior's last 5: DLWLW Most recently they drew with Palmeiras 1–1 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Cerro Porteno arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.1 for Cerro Porteno and 0.8 for Junior. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 62% likely.
Value angle: Junior to win at 3.85 – 32% on our numbers against 26% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 81% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Cerro Porteno 1–0 Junior. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cerro Porteno46%fair 2.16 · @1.99
Draw22%fair 4.53 · @3.25
Junior32%fair 3.17 · @3.85
1.98Expected goals
1.13Cerro Porteno xG
0.85Junior xG
48%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
0–014%
1–113%
0–112%
2–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: Cerro Porteno 1.1 – 0.8 Junior expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cerro Porteno to win✓
46%
2.16
1.99
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
52%
1.93
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
64%
1.57
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
50%
2.00
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cerro Porteno / FT Cerro Porteno✗
24%
4.19
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
16%
6.41
–
Form
Cerro Porteno – last 6
DLWWWW
12 Apr
@ Nacional Asuncion
0–0
D
9 Apr
@ Sporting Cristal
0–1
L
5 Apr
vs 2 de Mayo
3–0
W
1 Apr
@ Sportivo Luqueno
3–2
W
29 Mar
vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo
2–0
W
22 Mar
@ Libertad Asuncion
3–2
W
1.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Junior – last 6
DLWLWL
9 Apr
vs Palmeiras
1–1
D
4 Apr
vs Deportivo Cali
1–2
L
25 Mar
vs Bucaramanga
2–0
W
20 Mar
@ Independiente Medellin
0–2
L
16 Mar
vs Fortaleza FC
2–1
W
11 Mar
vs Atletico Nacional
0–4
L
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cerro Porteno and Junior.
What is the prediction for Cerro Porteno vs Junior?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Cerro Porteno vs Junior?
On our numbers Cerro Porteno have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Junior 32%.
How many goals will there be in Cerro Porteno vs Junior?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cerro Porteno vs Junior?
Our predicted score is Cerro Porteno 1–0 Junior, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Cerro Porteno vs Junior?
Cerro Porteno vs Junior (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Tuesday 14 April 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at General Pablo Rojas.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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