Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.93 – our chance 56% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultGremio to win ✓62% · @1.39
Double chanceGremio or draw ✓85% · @1.06
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.13
Gremio vs Palestino preview and prediction
The match
Palestino travel to Arena do Grêmio in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana on Thursday 21 May (01:00 WAT) to face Gremio. Gremio are 2nd with 11 points from 6 games, while Palestino sit 4th on 3 points.
Form guide
Gremio's last 5: DWLWD Most recently they drew with Bahia 1–1 away. They average 1.2 scored and 0.3 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Palestino's last 5: WWLDL Most recently they beat D. La Serena 5–1 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 30 April 2026, finished Palestino 0–0 Gremio.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.4 for Gremio and 0.7 for Palestino. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 56% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Gremio 62%, draw 24%, Palestino 15%.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Under 2.5 goals at 1.93 – 56% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.35, above our fair price of 1.32, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Gremio 1–0 Palestino. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Gremio62%fair 1.62 · @1.39
Draw24%fair 4.25 · @4.65
Palestino15%fair 6.72 · @7.40
2.18Expected goals
1.44Gremio xG
0.74Palestino xG
49%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
1–112%
2–012%
0–011%
2–19%
0–18%
From our goals model: Gremio 1.4 – 0.7 Palestino expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Gremio vs Palestino?
On our numbers Gremio have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Palestino 15%.
How many goals will there be in Gremio vs Palestino?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Gremio vs Palestino?
Our predicted score is Gremio 1–0 Palestino, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Gremio vs Palestino?
Gremio vs Palestino (CONMEBOL Sudamericana) kicks off on Thursday 21 May 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Arena do Grêmio.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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