Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.48 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.48Odds
2
Value bet: Santos to win @ 3.35 – our chance 32% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSan Lorenzo to win ✗44% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.33
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗52% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · @1.15
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.47
San Lorenzo vs Santos preview and prediction
The match
San Lorenzo host Santos in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana on Tuesday 28 April, with kick-off at 23:00 (WAT) at Pedro Bidegain. San Lorenzo are 3rd with 7 points from 6 games, while Santos sit 2nd on 7 points. Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
San Lorenzo's last 5: WDWDW Most recently they beat Platense 1–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.3 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Santos's last 5: DDWLW Most recently they drew with Coritiba 0–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
San Lorenzo arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.9 goals: 1.1 for San Lorenzo and 0.9 for Santos. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 66% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: San Lorenzo 44%, draw 24%, Santos 32%.
Both teams to score: no (52%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Santos to win at 3.35 – 32% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 66% chance at odds of 1.48. Predicted score: San Lorenzo 1–0 Santos. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
San Lorenzo44%fair 2.27 · @2.30
Draw24%fair 4.22 · @2.98
Santos32%fair 3.09 · @3.35
1.95Expected goals
1.08San Lorenzo xG
0.86Santos xG
48%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
0–014%
1–113%
0–112%
2–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: San Lorenzo 1.1 – 0.9 Santos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
San Lorenzo to win✗
44%
2.27
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.31
1.33
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
52%
1.94
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
60%
1.67
1.53
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.48
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
1.15
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
50%
1.98
–
Half-time / full-time
HT San Lorenzo / FT San Lorenzo✗
23%
4.42
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.47
–
Form
San Lorenzo – last 6
WDWDWD
25 Apr
@ Platense
1–0
W
20 Apr
vs Velez Sarsfield
0–0
D
17 Apr
vs Deportivo Cuenca
2–0
W
8 Apr
@ Deportivo Recoleta
1–1
D
3 Apr
vs Estudiantes L.P.
1–0
W
25 Mar
@ Deportivo Riestra
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Santos – last 6
DDWLWL
22 Apr
vs Coritiba
0–0
D
15 Apr
vs Deportivo Recoleta
1–1
D
12 Apr
vs Atletico-MG
1–0
W
8 Apr
@ Deportivo Cuenca
0–1
L
2 Apr
vs Remo
2–0
W
19 Mar
vs Internacional
1–2
L
0.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between San Lorenzo and Santos.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win San Lorenzo vs Santos?
On our numbers San Lorenzo have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Santos 32%.
How many goals will there be in San Lorenzo vs Santos?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for San Lorenzo vs Santos?
Our predicted score is San Lorenzo 1–0 Santos, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is San Lorenzo vs Santos?
San Lorenzo vs Santos (CONMEBOL Sudamericana) kicks off on Tuesday 28 April 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Pedro Bidegain.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
