Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.27 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.27Odds
1
Value bet: Zenit to win @ 1.92 – our chance 64% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +23%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultZenit to win ✗64% · @1.92
Double chanceZenit or draw ✓85% · @1.27
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.76
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗76% · @1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗11% · fair 9.25
Zenit vs Spartak Moscow preview and prediction
The match
The Cup sees Zenit take on Spartak Moscow on Wednesday 8 April, kicking off at 18:45 (WAT) at Gazprom Arena.
Form guide
Zenit's last 5: WWWLW Most recently they beat Krylia Sovetov 2–1 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Spartak Moscow's last 5: WWWWL Most recently they beat Lokomotiv 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 2.1 for Zenit and 0.9 for Spartak Moscow. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score in 57% of our simulations.
Value angle: Zenit to win at 1.92 – 64% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Zenit or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.27, above our fair price of 1.18, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Zenit 2–0 Spartak Moscow. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Zenit64%fair 1.56 · @1.92
Draw20%fair 4.88 · @3.68
Spartak Moscow15%fair 6.57 · @4.05
3.01Expected goals
2.09Zenit xG
0.92Spartak Moscow xG
57%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
1–010%
2–110%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Zenit 2.1 – 0.9 Spartak Moscow expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Zenit to win✗
64%
1.56
1.92 ▲
Double chance
Zenit or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.27 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.75
1.76
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
76%
1.31
1.27
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.86
1.92
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.48
1.31
Half-time result
Zenit ahead at half-time✗
47%
2.13
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Zenit / FT Zenit✗
42%
2.40
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
11%
9.25
–
Form
Zenit – last 6
WWWLWW
4 Apr
vs Krylia Sovetov
2–1
W
22 Mar
@ Dynamo
3–1
W
18 Mar
vs Dinamo Makhachkala
1–0
W
8 Mar
@ FC Orenburg
1–2
L
3 Mar
@ Baltika
1–0
W
27 Feb
vs Baltika
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Spartak Moscow – last 6
WWWWLW
5 Apr
vs Lokomotiv
2–1
W
22 Mar
@ FC Orenburg
2–0
W
18 Mar
vs Dynamo
1–0
W
9 Mar
vs Akron
4–3
W
5 Mar
@ Dynamo
2–5
L
2 Mar
@ FC Sochi
3–2
W
2.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Zenit and Spartak Moscow.
What is the prediction for Zenit vs Spartak Moscow?
Our pick is Zenit or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.27.
Who will win Zenit vs Spartak Moscow?
On our numbers Zenit have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Spartak Moscow 15%.
How many goals will there be in Zenit vs Spartak Moscow?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Zenit vs Spartak Moscow?
Our predicted score is Zenit 2–0 Spartak Moscow, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Zenit vs Spartak Moscow?
Zenit vs Spartak Moscow (Cup) kicks off on Wednesday 8 April 2026 at 18:45 (West Africa Time) at Gazprom Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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