Value bet: CD Olimpia to win @ 1.95 – our chance 58% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCD Olimpia to win ✓58% · @1.95
Double chanceCD Olimpia or draw ✓80% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.12
CD Olimpia vs CD Marathon preview and prediction
The match
CD Marathon travel to Estadio Nacional Jose de la Paz Herrera Ucles in the Liga Nacional on Thursday 23 April (02:30 WAT) to face CD Olimpia. CD Olimpia are 1st with 33 points from 14 games (top of the table), while CD Marathon sit 3rd on 28 points (in the top four).
Form guide
CD Olimpia's last 5: WWWDW Most recently they beat Atlético Choloma 3–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
CD Marathon's last 5: WLWDL Most recently they beat CD Motagua 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
CD Olimpia arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.7 for CD Olimpia and 0.9 for CD Marathon. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: CD Olimpia 58%, draw 22%, CD Marathon 20%.
Safer route: CD Olimpia or draw (80%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.70.
Value angle: CD Olimpia to win at 1.95 – 58% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: CD Olimpia 1–1 CD Marathon. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
CD Olimpia58%fair 1.73 · @1.95
Draw22%fair 4.51 · @2.95
CD Marathon20%fair 5.01 · @3.90
2.65Expected goals
1.75CD Olimpia xG
0.91CD Marathon xG
55%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–012%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
0–07%
0–16%
From our goals model: CD Olimpia 1.7 – 0.9 CD Marathon expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
CD Olimpia to win✓
58%
1.73
1.95 ▲
Double chance
CD Olimpia or draw✓
80%
1.25
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.82
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.96
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.30
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.41
–
Half-time / full-time
HT CD Olimpia / FT CD Olimpia✓
35%
2.82
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.12
–
Form
CD Olimpia – last 6
WWWDWD
19 Apr
@ Atlético Choloma
3–1
W
13 Apr
@ CD Motagua
1–0
W
9 Apr
vs Victoria
2–1
W
3 Apr
vs Lobos Upnfm
0–0
D
23 Mar
@ Juticalpa
6–1
W
19 Mar
vs Olancho
0–0
D
2.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
CD Marathon – last 6
WLWDLD
10 Apr
vs CD Motagua
1–0
W
3 Apr
@ Real Espana
0–2
L
18 Mar
@ Juticalpa
4–0
W
11 Mar
@ Atlético Choloma
0–0
D
27 Feb
vs Génesis
1–2
L
22 Feb
@ Olancho
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between CD Olimpia and CD Marathon.
What is the prediction for CD Olimpia vs CD Marathon?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win CD Olimpia vs CD Marathon?
On our numbers CD Olimpia have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 22% and CD Marathon 20%.
How many goals will there be in CD Olimpia vs CD Marathon?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for CD Olimpia vs CD Marathon?
Our predicted score is CD Olimpia 1–1 CD Marathon, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is CD Olimpia vs CD Marathon?
CD Olimpia vs CD Marathon (Liga Nacional) kicks off on Thursday 23 April 2026 at 02:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nacional Jose de la Paz Herrera Ucles.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
