Value bet: CD Marathon to win @ 3.10 – our chance 34% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCD Motagua to win ✗42% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 10.49
CD Marathon vs CD Motagua preview and prediction
The match
CD Marathon host CD Motagua in the Liga Nacional on Friday 10 April, with kick-off at 02:30 (WAT) at Estadio Yankel Rosenthal. CD Marathon are 3rd with 28 points from 14 games (in the top four), while CD Motagua sit 4th on 28 points (in the top four). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
CD Marathon's last 5: LWDLD Most recently they lost to Real Espana 0–2 away. They average 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded.
CD Motagua's last 5: WDWWW Most recently they beat Génesis 3–1 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 0.7 conceded.
CD Motagua arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 16 February 2026, finished CD Motagua 1–1 CD Marathon.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.3 for CD Marathon and 1.4 for CD Motagua. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 61%.
Betting angles
Win chances: CD Marathon 34%, draw 24%, CD Motagua 42%.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.73.
Value angle: CD Marathon to win at 3.10 – 34% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: CD Marathon 1–1 CD Motagua. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
CD Marathon34%fair 2.91 · @3.10
Draw24%fair 4.17 · @3.20
CD Motagua42%fair 2.40 · @2.15
2.71Expected goals
1.28CD Marathon xG
1.44CD Motagua xG
61%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–110%
1–29%
1–08%
2–18%
0–27%
From our goals model: CD Marathon 1.3 – 1.4 CD Motagua expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for CD Marathon vs CD Motagua?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win CD Marathon vs CD Motagua?
On our numbers CD Marathon have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 24% and CD Motagua 42%.
How many goals will there be in CD Marathon vs CD Motagua?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for CD Marathon vs CD Motagua?
Our predicted score is CD Marathon 1–1 CD Motagua, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is CD Marathon vs CD Motagua?
CD Marathon vs CD Motagua (Liga Nacional) kicks off on Friday 10 April 2026 at 02:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Yankel Rosenthal.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
