Good pick · fair odds 1.64 · bookmaker 1.57 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.57Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.20 – our chance 51% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultFakel to win ✓44% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @2.20
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · @1.09
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 7.01
Arsenal Tula vs Fakel preview and prediction
The match
Fakel travel to Stadion Arsenal in the First League on Sunday 5 April (14:00 WAT) to face Arsenal Tula.
Form guide
Arsenal Tula's last 5: WWLLL Most recently they beat FK Sokol Saratov 3–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Fakel's last 3: WLW Most recently they beat FK Neftekhimik 2–0 away. They average 1.0 scored and 0.3 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Fakel arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 0.9 for Arsenal Tula and 1.2 for Fakel. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 65% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Arsenal Tula 32%, draw 24%, Fakel 44%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.20.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.20 – 51% on our numbers against 45% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 61% chance at odds of 1.57. Predicted score: Arsenal Tula 1–1 Fakel. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Arsenal Tula32%fair 3.11 · @3.38
Draw24%fair 4.22 · @2.95
Fakel44%fair 2.26 · @2.25
2.11Expected goals
0.93Arsenal Tula xG
1.17Fakel xG
51%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
1–113%
0–012%
1–011%
0–28%
1–28%
From our goals model: Arsenal Tula 0.9 – 1.2 Fakel expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Fakel to win✓
44%
2.26
2.25
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.98
2.20 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
1.57
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
65%
1.53
1.38
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
1.09
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.06
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Fakel / FT Fakel✓
23%
4.27
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
14%
7.01
–
Form
Arsenal Tula – last 6
WWLLLD
29 Mar
vs FK Sokol Saratov
3–1
W
22 Mar
@ Ska-khabarovsk
3–1
W
15 Mar
@ Ural
0–2
L
9 Mar
vs Volga Ulyanovsk
0–1
L
5 Mar
vs Lokomotiv
1–2
L
27 Feb
@ KAMAZ
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Fakel – last 3
WLW
1 Apr
@ FK Neftekhimik
2–0
W
20 Mar
@ Rotor Volgograd
0–1
L
27 Feb
vs Ural
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Arsenal Tula and Fakel.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Arsenal Tula vs Fakel?
On our numbers Arsenal Tula have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Fakel 44%.
How many goals will there be in Arsenal Tula vs Fakel?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Arsenal Tula vs Fakel?
Our predicted score is Arsenal Tula 1–1 Fakel, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Arsenal Tula vs Fakel?
Arsenal Tula vs Fakel (First League) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Arsenal.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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Chayka0