Value bet: Água Santa to win @ 2.80 – our chance 43% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultÁgua Santa to win ✗43% · @2.80
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.23
Ituano vs Água Santa preview and prediction
The match
The Paulista A2 sees Ituano take on Água Santa on Wednesday 25 March, kicking off at 22:00 (WAT).
Form guide
Ituano's last 4: DLLL Most recently they drew with XV de Piracicaba 0–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Água Santa's last 5: DWWWL Most recently they drew with Votuporanguense 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Água Santa arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 0.3.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 18 February 2026, finished Ituano 0–1 Água Santa.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.1 for Ituano and 1.3 for Água Santa. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 57%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Ituano 35%, draw 22%, Água Santa 43%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Água Santa to win at 2.80 – 43% on our numbers against 36% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Ituano 1–1 Água Santa. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ituano35%fair 2.89 · @2.35
Draw22%fair 4.54 · @3.20
Água Santa43%fair 2.30 · @2.80
2.34Expected goals
1.08Ituano xG
1.26Água Santa xG
57%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–010%
0–010%
1–28%
0–28%
From our goals model: Ituano 1.1 – 1.3 Água Santa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Ituano vs Água Santa?
On our numbers Ituano have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Água Santa 43%.
How many goals will there be in Ituano vs Água Santa?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ituano vs Água Santa?
Our predicted score is Ituano 1–1 Água Santa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Ituano vs Água Santa?
Ituano vs Água Santa (Paulista A2) kicks off on Wednesday 25 March 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Paulista A2 · Brazil
