Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 51% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultFerroviária to win ✗62% · @1.50
Double chanceFerroviária or draw ✗81% · @1.06
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 6.93
Ferroviária vs Sertãozinho preview and prediction
The match
The Paulista A2 sees Ferroviária take on Sertãozinho on Thursday 19 March, kicking off at 01:00 (WAT).
Form guide
Ferroviária's last 4: LLWD Most recently they lost to Juventus 1–2 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Sertãozinho's last 4: LWWW Most recently they lost to São José EC 1–2 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Sertãozinho arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.7 for Ferroviária and 0.8 for Sertãozinho. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 51%.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.10 – 51% on our numbers against 48% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Ferroviária 1–0 Sertãozinho. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ferroviária62%fair 1.63 · @1.50
Draw20%fair 5.03 · @3.70
Sertãozinho19%fair 5.38 · @6.20
2.46Expected goals
1.70Ferroviária xG
0.77Sertãozinho xG
51%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–19%
0–09%
3–07%
From our goals model: Ferroviária 1.7 – 0.8 Sertãozinho expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ferroviária to win✗
62%
1.63
1.50
Double chance
Ferroviária or draw✗
81%
1.23
1.06
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.96
2.10 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.82
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ferroviária / FT Ferroviária✗
37%
2.71
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
6.93
–
Form
Ferroviária – last 4
LLWD
15 Mar
@ Juventus
1–2
L
26 Feb
vs Votuporanguense
1–2
L
22 Feb
vs Monte Azul
1–0
W
19 Feb
@ São José EC
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
75%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Sertãozinho – last 4
LWWW
14 Mar
vs São José EC
1–2
L
4 Mar
@ Monte Azul
2–0
W
25 Feb
@ Santo André
2–1
W
18 Feb
vs Juventus
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ferroviária and Sertãozinho.
What is the prediction for Ferroviária vs Sertãozinho?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Ferroviária vs Sertãozinho?
On our numbers Ferroviária have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Sertãozinho 19%.
How many goals will there be in Ferroviária vs Sertãozinho?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ferroviária vs Sertãozinho?
Our predicted score is Ferroviária 1–0 Sertãozinho, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Ferroviária vs Sertãozinho?
Ferroviária vs Sertãozinho (Paulista A2) kicks off on Thursday 19 March 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Paulista A2 · Brazil
