Value bet: Sturm Graz to win @ 1.90 – our chance 63% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSturm Graz to win ✓63% · @1.90
Double chanceEither team to win ✓86% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.39
Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna preview and prediction
The match
The Bundesliga sees Sturm Graz take on Rapid Vienna on Sunday 17 May, kicking off at 13:30 (WAT) at Merkur-Arena. Sturm Graz are 5th with 19 points from 12 games (in the top half), while Rapid Vienna sit 1st on 33 points (top of the table). A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Sturm Graz's last 5: DDWDW Most recently they drew with Lask Linz 1–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Rapid Vienna's last 5: LWLDL Most recently they lost to Lask Linz 1–3 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Sturm Graz arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 5 April 2026, finished Rapid Vienna 0–2 Sturm Graz.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.8 for Sturm Graz and 0.9 for Rapid Vienna. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 59%.
Value angle: Sturm Graz to win at 1.90 – 63% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Sturm Graz 2–0 Rapid Vienna. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sturm Graz63%fair 1.58 · @1.90
Draw14%fair 7.18 · @3.70
Rapid Vienna23%fair 4.40 · @3.65
2.73Expected goals
1.82Sturm Graz xG
0.91Rapid Vienna xG
59%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–012%
2–011%
1–111%
2–110%
3–07%
0–07%
From our goals model: Sturm Graz 1.8 – 0.9 Rapid Vienna expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna?
On our numbers Sturm Graz have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Rapid Vienna 23%.
How many goals will there be in Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna?
Our predicted score is Sturm Graz 2–0 Rapid Vienna, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna?
Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna (Bundesliga) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time) at Merkur-Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
