Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz prediction & analysis
64%
Footrivo pick
Red Bull Salzburg to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.67
6/10Rating
1.67Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultRed Bull Salzburg to win64% · @1.67
Double chanceRed Bull Salzburg or draw85% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score60% · @1.50
GoalsOver 1.5 goals81% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–011% · fair 9.26
Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz preview and prediction
The match
Sturm Graz travel to Red Bull Arena in the Bundesliga on Sunday 3 May (16:00 WAT) to face Red Bull Salzburg. Red Bull Salzburg are 2nd with 30 points from 12 games (in the top four), while Sturm Graz sit 5th on 19 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Red Bull Salzburg's last 5: LWWLW Most recently they lost to Rapid Vienna 0–1 away. They average 1.8 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Sturm Graz's last 5: DDWDW Most recently they drew with Lask Linz 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 20 March 2026, finished Sturm Graz 1–1 Red Bull Salzburg.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 2.1 for Red Bull Salzburg and 0.9 for Sturm Graz. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score in 60% of our simulations.
Safer route: Red Bull Salzburg or draw (85%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.50.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Red Bull Salzburg to win – a 64% chance at odds of 1.67, above our fair price of 1.56, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Red Bull Salzburg 2–0 Sturm Graz. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Red Bull Salzburg64%fair 1.56 · @1.67
Draw21%fair 4.69 · @4.00
Sturm Graz15%fair 6.86 · @4.60
3.03Expected goals
2.11Red Bull Salzburg xG
0.92Sturm Graz xG
60%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
1–010%
2–110%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Red Bull Salzburg 2.1 – 0.9 Sturm Graz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz?
Our pick is Red Bull Salzburg to win with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz?
On our numbers Red Bull Salzburg have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Sturm Graz 15%.
How many goals will there be in Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz?
Our predicted score is Red Bull Salzburg 2–0 Sturm Graz, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz?
Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz (Bundesliga) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Red Bull Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
