Value bet: Sturm Graz to win @ 3.10 – our chance 38% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLask Linz to win ✗39% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.90
Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz preview and prediction
The match
Sturm Graz travel to Raiffeisen Arena in the Bundesliga on Sunday 19 April (16:00 WAT) to face Lask Linz. Lask Linz are 3rd with 25 points from 12 games (in the top four), while Sturm Graz sit 5th on 19 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Lask Linz's last 5: WWLDD Most recently they beat Red Bull Salzburg 3–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Sturm Graz's last 5: WDWWD Most recently they beat Rapid Vienna 2–0 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Sturm Graz arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.4 for Lask Linz and 1.4 for Sturm Graz. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 62%.
Value angle: Sturm Graz to win at 3.10 – 38% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Lask Linz 1–1 Sturm Graz. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lask Linz39%fair 2.57 · @2.20
Draw23%fair 4.42 · @3.55
Sturm Graz38%fair 2.60 · @3.10
2.87Expected goals
1.44Lask Linz xG
1.43Sturm Graz xG
62%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
2–18%
1–28%
1–08%
0–18%
2–26%
From our goals model: Lask Linz 1.4 – 1.4 Sturm Graz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lask Linz to win✗
39%
2.57
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.29
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.61
1.55
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.82
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
1.44
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.46
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lask Linz / FT Lask Linz✗
22%
4.54
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
11.90
–
Form
Lask Linz – last 6
WWLDDW
10 Apr
@ Red Bull Salzburg
3–2
W
5 Apr
vs Austria Vienna
4–1
W
22 Mar
@ Rapid Vienna
2–4
L
18 Mar
@ Ried
1–1
D
13 Mar
vs TSV Hartberg
0–0
D
8 Mar
vs Wolfsberger AC
3–1
W
2.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Sturm Graz – last 6
WDWWDW
5 Apr
@ Rapid Vienna
2–0
W
20 Mar
vs Red Bull Salzburg
1–1
D
15 Mar
@ Austria Vienna
5–2
W
8 Mar
vs SCR Altach
2–0
W
1 Mar
@ Wolfsberger AC
2–2
D
22 Feb
vs FC BW Linz
1–0
W
2.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lask Linz and Sturm Graz.
What is the prediction for Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
On our numbers Lask Linz have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Sturm Graz 38%.
How many goals will there be in Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Our predicted score is Lask Linz 1–1 Sturm Graz, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz (Bundesliga) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Raiffeisen Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
