Value bet: Sturm Graz to win @ 3.10 – our chance 37% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultRed Bull Salzburg to win ✗41% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓64% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.57
Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg preview and prediction
The match
Red Bull Salzburg travel to Merkur-Arena in the Bundesliga on Friday 20 March (19:30 WAT) to face Sturm Graz. Sturm Graz are 5th with 19 points from 12 games (in the top half), while Red Bull Salzburg sit 2nd on 30 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Sturm Graz's last 4: WWDW Most recently they beat Austria Vienna 5–2 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.5 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Red Bull Salzburg's last 5: LLLDW Most recently they lost to Rapid Vienna 0–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Sturm Graz arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.4 for Sturm Graz and 1.5 for Red Bull Salzburg. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score in 64% of our simulations. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Sturm Graz to win at 3.10 – 37% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Sturm Graz 1–1 Red Bull Salzburg. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sturm Graz37%fair 2.74 · @3.10
Draw23%fair 4.37 · @3.45
Red Bull Salzburg41%fair 2.46 · @2.20
2.91Expected goals
1.41Sturm Graz xG
1.50Red Bull Salzburg xG
64%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–29%
0–18%
2–18%
1–08%
0–26%
From our goals model: Sturm Graz 1.4 – 1.5 Red Bull Salzburg expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Red Bull Salzburg to win✗
41%
2.46
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.30
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
64%
1.55
1.55
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.80
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.44
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
40%
2.48
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Red Bull Salzburg / FT Red Bull Salzburg✗
23%
4.28
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.57
–
Form
Sturm Graz – last 4
WWDW
15 Mar
@ Austria Vienna
5–2
W
8 Mar
vs SCR Altach
2–0
W
1 Mar
@ Wolfsberger AC
2–2
D
22 Feb
vs FC BW Linz
1–0
W
2.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Red Bull Salzburg – last 6
LLLDWD
15 Mar
vs Rapid Vienna
0–1
L
8 Mar
@ Rapid Vienna
0–1
L
4 Mar
vs SCR Altach
0–1
L
1 Mar
vs TSV Hartberg
0–0
D
22 Feb
@ Lask Linz
5–1
W
15 Feb
@ Grazer AK
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg.
What is the prediction for Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
On our numbers Sturm Graz have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Red Bull Salzburg 41%.
How many goals will there be in Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our predicted score is Sturm Graz 1–1 Red Bull Salzburg, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg (Bundesliga) kicks off on Friday 20 March 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Merkur-Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
