Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.62 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.62Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultAlvarado to win ✗64% · @1.62
Double chanceAlvarado or draw ✓85% · @1.10
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓60% · @1.36
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗24% · fair 4.24
Santamarina vs Alvarado preview and prediction
The match
Alvarado travel to Estadio Municipal Gral. San Martin in the Torneo Federal A on Saturday 11 July (19:30 WAT) to face Santamarina. Santamarina are 36th with 13 points from 16 games (in the bottom three), while Alvarado sit 5th on 27 points (in the top half). A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Santamarina's last 5: LLDWL Most recently they lost to Germinal de Rawson 0–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Alvarado's last 5: WLWDW Most recently they beat Germinal de Rawson 5–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 0.5 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Alvarado arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.7 goals: 0.4 for Santamarina and 1.3 for Alvarado. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 75% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Our pre-match pick was Alvarado to win – a 64% chance at odds of 1.62, above our fair price of 1.56, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Santamarina 0–1 Alvarado. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Santamarina15%fair 6.49 · @5.50
Draw20%fair 4.88 · @3.00
Alvarado64%fair 1.56 · @1.62
1.72Expected goals
0.40Santamarina xG
1.32Alvarado xG
40%Both score
25%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–124%
0–018%
0–216%
1–19%
1–07%
0–37%
From our goals model: Santamarina 0.4 – 1.3 Alvarado expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alvarado to win✗
64%
1.56
1.62
Double chance
Alvarado or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.10
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
60%
1.68
1.36
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
51%
1.95
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
52%
1.93
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alvarado / FT Alvarado✗
36%
2.82
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
24%
4.24
–
Form
Santamarina – last 6
LLDWLL
28 Jun
@ Germinal de Rawson
0–1
L
20 Jun
vs Villa Mitre
0–2
L
14 Jun
@ Circulo Deportivo
0–0
D
7 Jun
vs Kimberley Mar del Plata
1–0
W
31 May
@ Sol de Mayo
2–3
L
24 May
vs Guillermo Brown
0–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Alvarado – last 6
WLWDWD
5 Jul
vs Germinal de Rawson
5–0
W
28 Jun
@ Villa Mitre
0–1
L
20 Jun
vs Circulo Deportivo
1–0
W
14 Jun
@ Kimberley Mar del Plata
2–2
D
7 Jun
vs Sol de Mayo
2–0
W
31 May
@ Guillermo Brown
0–0
D
1.7Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Santamarina and Alvarado.
What is the prediction for Santamarina vs Alvarado?
Our pick is Alvarado to win with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Santamarina vs Alvarado?
On our numbers Santamarina have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Alvarado 64%.
How many goals will there be in Santamarina vs Alvarado?
We expect about 1.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 25% likely and both teams score 40% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Santamarina vs Alvarado?
Our predicted score is Santamarina 0–1 Alvarado, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.7 goals in total.
When is Santamarina vs Alvarado?
Santamarina vs Alvarado (Torneo Federal A) kicks off on Saturday 11 July 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal Gral. San Martin.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
