Value bet: Jonava to win @ 3.20 – our chance 34% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultNeptūną Klaipėda to win ✓44% · @2.04
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.24
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.71
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗74% · @1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓10% · fair 10.52
Jonava vs Neptūną Klaipėda preview and prediction
The match
Jonava host Neptūną Klaipėda in the 1 Lyga on Friday 8 May, with kick-off at 17:00 (WAT) at Jonavos centrinis stadionas. Jonava are 10th with 32 points from 30 games (in the bottom half), while Neptūną Klaipėda sit 8th on 45 points (in the top half). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Jonava's last 4: LDWD Most recently they lost to Šiauliai 0–4 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 2.3 conceded.
Neptūną Klaipėda's last 5: WLLLW Most recently they beat Žalgiris II 2–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.3 for Jonava and 1.5 for Neptūną Klaipėda. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 58%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Jonava to win at 3.20 – 34% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.26. Predicted score: Jonava 1–1 Neptūną Klaipėda. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Jonava34%fair 2.92 · @3.20
Draw22%fair 4.59 · @3.20
Neptūną Klaipėda44%fair 2.27 · @2.04
2.74Expected goals
1.27Jonava xG
1.48Neptūną Klaipėda xG
58%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–110%
1–29%
1–08%
2–18%
0–27%
From our goals model: Jonava 1.3 – 1.5 Neptūną Klaipėda expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Neptūną Klaipėda to win✓
44%
2.27
2.04
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.24
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.73
1.71
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
74%
1.35
1.26
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
50%
1.99
1.86
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.40
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Neptūną Klaipėda / FT Neptūną Klaipėda✓
25%
4.02
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✓
10%
10.52
–
Form
Jonava – last 4
LDWD
29 Apr
vs Šiauliai
0–4
L
19 Apr
@ FA Šiauliai II
2–2
D
4 Apr
vs Kauno Žalgiris II
3–1
W
18 Mar
vs Be1 NFA
2–2
D
1.8Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
75%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Neptūną Klaipėda – last 6
WLLLWL
2 May
vs Žalgiris II
2–1
W
22 Apr
vs Džiugas Telšiai
0–2
L
17 Apr
vs BFA
1–3
L
4 Apr
@ Babrungas
0–1
L
22 Mar
vs Tauras
1–0
W
17 Mar
vs Garliava
0–3
L
0.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Jonava and Neptūną Klaipėda.
What is the prediction for Jonava vs Neptūną Klaipėda?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.26.
Who will win Jonava vs Neptūną Klaipėda?
On our numbers Jonava have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Neptūną Klaipėda 44%.
How many goals will there be in Jonava vs Neptūną Klaipėda?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Jonava vs Neptūną Klaipėda?
Our predicted score is Jonava 1–1 Neptūną Klaipėda, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Jonava vs Neptūną Klaipėda?
Jonava vs Neptūną Klaipėda (1 Lyga) kicks off on Friday 8 May 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Jonavos centrinis stadionas.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
