Value bet: Jonava to win @ 3.25 – our chance 35% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultDainava to win41% · @2.04
Double chanceEither team to win76% · @1.24
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score61% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals75% · @1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–09% · fair 11.35
Dainava vs Jonava preview and prediction
The match
The 1 Lyga sees Dainava take on Jonava on Saturday 2 May, kicking off at 15:00 (WAT) at Alytus Stadium. Dainava are 7th with 48 points from 30 games (in the top half), while Jonava sit 10th on 32 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 16 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Dainava's last 4: DDLL Most recently they drew with Žalgiris II 0–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Jonava's last 4: LDWD Most recently they lost to Šiauliai 0–4 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 2.3 conceded.
Jonava arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.5 for Dainava and 1.3 for Jonava. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 61%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Dainava 41%, draw 24%, Jonava 35%.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Jonava to win at 3.25 – 35% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.26. Predicted score: Dainava 1–1 Jonava. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Dainava41%fair 2.43 · @2.04
Draw24%fair 4.19 · @3.20
Jonava35%fair 2.86 · @3.25
2.82Expected goals
1.48Dainava xG
1.34Jonava xG
61%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–09%
2–19%
0–18%
1–28%
2–07%
From our goals model: Dainava 1.5 – 1.3 Jonava expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Dainava to win
41%
2.43
2.04
Double chance
Either team to win
76%
1.31
1.24
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
61%
1.63
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
75%
1.34
1.26
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
51%
1.95
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
70%
1.43
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time
41%
2.43
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Dainava / FT Dainava
24%
4.19
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
9%
11.35
–
Form
Dainava – last 4
DDLL
24 Apr
@ Žalgiris II
0–0
D
4 Apr
@ BFA
0–0
D
28 Mar
@ Tauras
1–2
L
22 Mar
@ Babrungas
1–3
L
0.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Jonava – last 4
LDWD
29 Apr
vs Šiauliai
0–4
L
19 Apr
@ FA Šiauliai II
2–2
D
4 Apr
vs Kauno Žalgiris II
3–1
W
18 Mar
vs Be1 NFA
2–2
D
1.8Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
75%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Dainava and Jonava.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.26.
Who will win Dainava vs Jonava?
On our numbers Dainava have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Jonava 35%.
How many goals will there be in Dainava vs Jonava?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Dainava vs Jonava?
Our predicted score is Dainava 1–1 Jonava, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Dainava vs Jonava?
Dainava vs Jonava (1 Lyga) kicks off on Saturday 2 May 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Alytus Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
