Value bet: Smiltene to win @ 1.95 – our chance 56% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSmiltene to win ✓56% · @1.95
Double chanceEither team to win ✓81% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓73% · @1.30
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.23
Smiltene vs Tukums II preview and prediction
The match
Tukums II travel to face Smiltene in the 1. Liga on Sunday 11 October (12:00 WAT). Smiltene are 9th with 27 points from 26 games (in the bottom half), while Tukums II sit 12th on 20 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Smiltene's last 5: WWLLL Most recently they beat Super Nova 2 2–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 3.0 conceded.
Tukums II's last 5: WWLLL Most recently they beat JFK Ventspils 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 3.2 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 24 May 2026, finished Tukums II 1–1 Smiltene.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.1 goals: 2.5 for Smiltene and 1.6 for Tukums II. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 78% likely and both teams score in 73% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Smiltene 56%, draw 19%, Tukums II 25%.
Both teams to score: yes (73%) at 1.30.
Value angle: Smiltene to win at 1.95 – 56% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 73% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Smiltene 2–1 Tukums II. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Smiltene56%fair 1.80 · @1.95
Draw19%fair 5.21 · @3.40
Tukums II25%fair 3.98 · @3.10
4.12Expected goals
2.47Smiltene xG
1.65Tukums II xG
73%Both score
78%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–18%
2–27%
3–17%
1–17%
3–26%
1–25%
From our goals model: Smiltene 2.5 – 1.6 Tukums II expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Smiltene vs Tukums II?
On our numbers Smiltene have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Tukums II 25%.
How many goals will there be in Smiltene vs Tukums II?
We expect about 4.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 78% likely and both teams score 73% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Smiltene vs Tukums II?
Our predicted score is Smiltene 2–1 Tukums II, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.1 goals in total.
When is Smiltene vs Tukums II?
Smiltene vs Tukums II (1. Liga) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
