Good pick · fair odds 1.50 · bookmaker 1.53 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.53Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultTukums II to win ✗67% · @1.53
Double chanceTukums II or draw ✓87% · @1.12
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · fair 1.80
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗69% · @1.40
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.78
Tukums II vs Smiltene preview and prediction
The match
The 1. Liga sees Tukums II take on Smiltene on Sunday 24 May, kicking off at 14:00 (WAT). Tukums II are 12th with 20 points from 26 games (in the bottom three), while Smiltene sit 9th on 27 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Tukums II's last 3: LLW Most recently they lost to Mārupe 1–2 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Smiltene's last 4: LLLD Most recently they lost to Super Nova 2 0–2 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 3.0 conceded.
Tukums II arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.0 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.7 goals: 2.6 for Tukums II and 1.1 for Smiltene. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score in 56% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Tukums II 67%, draw 20%, Smiltene 13%.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Tukums II to win – a 67% chance at odds of 1.53, above our fair price of 1.50, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Tukums II 2–1 Smiltene. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Tukums II67%fair 1.50 · @1.53
Draw20%fair 4.99 · @4.10
Smiltene13%fair 7.62 · @4.50
3.67Expected goals
2.55Tukums II xG
1.12Smiltene xG
56%Both score
69%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–19%
2–08%
3–18%
1–17%
3–07%
1–06%
From our goals model: Tukums II 2.6 – 1.1 Smiltene expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tukums II to win✗
67%
1.50
1.53
Double chance
Tukums II or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.12
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.80
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
69%
1.46
1.40
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
50%
2.00
–
Half-time result
Tukums II ahead at half-time✗
51%
1.95
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Tukums II / FT Tukums II✗
46%
2.18
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.78
–
Form
Tukums II – last 3
LLW
9 May
vs Mārupe
1–2
L
2 May
@ Leevon PPK
1–4
L
27 Apr
vs Skanste
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Smiltene – last 4
LLLD
13 May
vs Super Nova 2
0–2
L
3 May
vs JDFS Alberts
2–3
L
12 Apr
@ Valmiera BSS
0–4
L
22 Mar
@ Rīgas FS II
3–3
D
1.3Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tukums II and Smiltene.
Our pick is Tukums II to win with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Tukums II vs Smiltene?
On our numbers Tukums II have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Smiltene 13%.
How many goals will there be in Tukums II vs Smiltene?
We expect about 3.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tukums II vs Smiltene?
Our predicted score is Tukums II 2–1 Smiltene, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.7 goals in total.
When is Tukums II vs Smiltene?
Tukums II vs Smiltene (1. Liga) kicks off on Sunday 24 May 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
