Value bet: Yanbian Longding to win @ 1.95 – our chance 62% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultYanbian Longding to win ✓62% · @1.95
Double chanceYanbian Longding or draw ✓84% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.11
Yanbian Longding vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring preview and prediction
The match
Heilongjiang Lava Spring travel to Yanji Nationwide Fitness Centre Stadium in the League One on Saturday 4 July (11:00 WAT) to face Yanbian Longding. Yanbian Longding are 6th with 46 points from 30 games (in the top half), while Heilongjiang Lava Spring sit 14th on 28 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 18 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Yanbian Longding's last 5: WLDWL Most recently they beat Dongguan United 2–0 away. They average 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Heilongjiang Lava Spring's last 5: DLDDL Most recently they drew with Wuxi Wugou 3–3 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 2.7 conceded.
Yanbian Longding arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.8 for Yanbian Longding and 0.8 for Heilongjiang Lava Spring. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 55%.
Safer route: Yanbian Longding or draw (84%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Yanbian Longding to win at 1.95 – 62% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Yanbian Longding 1–0 Heilongjiang Lava Spring. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Yanbian Longding62%fair 1.62 · @1.95
Draw22%fair 4.48 · @3.10
Heilongjiang Lava Spring16%fair 6.28 · @3.80
2.53Expected goals
1.77Yanbian Longding xG
0.76Heilongjiang Lava Spring xG
55%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–19%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: Yanbian Longding 1.8 – 0.8 Heilongjiang Lava Spring expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Yanbian Longding to win✓
62%
1.62
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Yanbian Longding or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.81
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.85
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.25
Half-time result
Yanbian Longding ahead at half-time✓
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Yanbian Longding / FT Yanbian Longding✓
38%
2.60
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.11
–
Form
Yanbian Longding – last 6
WLDWLD
27 Jun
@ Dongguan United
2–0
W
14 Jun
@ Nantong Zhiyun
0–2
L
30 May
vs Changchun Yatai
2–2
D
24 May
@ Guangzhou E-Power
4–3
W
16 May
@ Shanghai Second
0–1
L
10 May
vs Guangxi Hengchen
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Heilongjiang Lava Spring – last 6
DLDDLL
28 Jun
vs Wuxi Wugou
3–3
D
13 Jun
vs Guangzhou E-Power
1–3
L
30 May
@ Meizhou Kejia
2–2
D
23 May
@ Dongguan United
1–1
D
17 May
@ Shanghai Zetian
2–4
L
9 May
vs Changchun Yatai
2–3
L
1.8Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
100%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Yanbian Longding and Heilongjiang Lava Spring.
What is the prediction for Yanbian Longding vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Yanbian Longding vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring?
On our numbers Yanbian Longding have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Heilongjiang Lava Spring 16%.
How many goals will there be in Yanbian Longding vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Yanbian Longding vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring?
Our predicted score is Yanbian Longding 1–0 Heilongjiang Lava Spring, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Yanbian Longding vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring?
Yanbian Longding vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring (League One) kicks off on Saturday 4 July 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Yanji Nationwide Fitness Centre Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
