Value bet: São Bernardo to win @ 1.88 – our chance 57% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSão Bernardo to win ✓57% · @1.88
Double chanceSão Bernardo or draw ✓81% · @1.18
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓55% · @1.48
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓71% · @1.38
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓21% · fair 4.69
Joinville vs São Bernardo preview and prediction
The match
São Bernardo travel to Arena Joinville in the Copa Do Brasil on Tuesday 10 March (23:30 WAT) to face Joinville.
Form guide
Joinville's last 5: LLWLW Most recently they lost to Marcílio Dias 0–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.4 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 0.5 for Joinville and 1.2 for São Bernardo. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 71% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Joinville 19%, draw 24%, São Bernardo 57%.
Safer route: São Bernardo or draw (81%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: no (55%) at 1.48.
Value angle: São Bernardo to win at 1.88 – 57% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 71% chance at odds of 1.38. Predicted score: Joinville 0–1 São Bernardo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Joinville19%fair 5.26 · @4.45
Draw24%fair 4.16 · @3.00
São Bernardo57%fair 1.75 · @1.88
1.75Expected goals
0.52Joinville xG
1.23São Bernardo xG
45%Both score
29%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–121%
0–017%
0–213%
1–111%
1–09%
1–27%
From our goals model: Joinville 0.5 – 1.2 São Bernardo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
São Bernardo to win✓
57%
1.75
1.88 ▲
Double chance
São Bernardo or draw✓
81%
1.23
1.18
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
55%
1.82
1.48
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
55%
1.82
1.62
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.38
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
1.11
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
52%
1.92
–
Half-time / full-time
HT São Bernardo / FT São Bernardo✗
31%
3.20
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✓
21%
4.69
–
Form
Joinville – last 5
LLWLW
7 Mar
@ Marcílio Dias
0–2
L
28 Feb
vs Figueirense
0–3
L
24 Feb
vs CSA
1–0
W
19 Feb
@ Carlos Renaux
1–2
L
14 Feb
vs Carlos Renaux
3–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
20%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
São Bernardo – last 2
WL
26 Feb
vs Atlético Alagoinhas
2–0
W
16 Feb
vs Corinthians
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Joinville and São Bernardo.
What is the prediction for Joinville vs São Bernardo?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.38.
Who will win Joinville vs São Bernardo?
On our numbers Joinville have a 19% chance of winning, the draw 24% and São Bernardo 57%.
How many goals will there be in Joinville vs São Bernardo?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 29% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Joinville vs São Bernardo?
Our predicted score is Joinville 0–1 São Bernardo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Joinville vs São Bernardo?
Joinville vs São Bernardo (Copa Do Brasil) kicks off on Tuesday 10 March 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena Joinville.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
