FK Tobol Kostanay vs Ordabasy preview and prediction
The match
Ordabasy travel to Centralnyj Stadion in the Premier League on Saturday 23 May (16:00 WAT) to face FK Tobol Kostanay. FK Tobol Kostanay are 7th with 41 points from 30 games (in the top half), while Ordabasy sit 1st on 68 points (top of the table). A gap of 27 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
FK Tobol Kostanay's last 5: LLWWL Most recently they lost to Kaisar 1–2 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game.
Ordabasy's last 5: WWDWW Most recently they beat Zhetysu 2–1 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Ordabasy arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 0.8 for FK Tobol Kostanay and 1.7 for Ordabasy. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 54%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: FK Tobol Kostanay 17%, draw 24%, Ordabasy 59%.
Safer route: Ordabasy or draw (83%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.80.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: FK Tobol Kostanay 0–1 Ordabasy. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
FK Tobol Kostanay17%fair 5.79 · @4.00
Draw24%fair 4.18 · @3.35
Ordabasy59%fair 1.70 · @1.80
2.50Expected goals
0.80FK Tobol Kostanay xG
1.70Ordabasy xG
54%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
0–212%
1–111%
1–29%
0–08%
0–37%
From our goals model: FK Tobol Kostanay 0.8 – 1.7 Ordabasy expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ordabasy to win✓
59%
1.70
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Ordabasy or draw✓
83%
1.21
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.87
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.88
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.34
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ordabasy / FT Ordabasy✗
36%
2.75
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
14%
7.15
–
Form
FK Tobol Kostanay – last 6
LLWWLW
17 May
@ Kaisar
1–2
L
3 May
@ Zhenys
0–1
L
29 Apr
@ FC Astana
2–1
W
26 Apr
vs Kaspiy
2–1
W
19 Apr
@ Ulytau
1–2
L
8 Apr
@ Ansat
8–0
W
2.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Ordabasy – last 6
WWDWWW
17 May
vs Zhetysu
2–1
W
13 May
vs Zhetysu
1–0
W
10 May
@ Altay
0–0
D
30 Apr
vs Kaspiy
3–0
W
8 Apr
@ Akademiya Ontustik
4–2
W
20 Mar
vs Kaisar
2–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FK Tobol Kostanay and Ordabasy.
What is the prediction for FK Tobol Kostanay vs Ordabasy?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win FK Tobol Kostanay vs Ordabasy?
On our numbers FK Tobol Kostanay have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Ordabasy 59%.
How many goals will there be in FK Tobol Kostanay vs Ordabasy?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FK Tobol Kostanay vs Ordabasy?
Our predicted score is FK Tobol Kostanay 0–1 Ordabasy, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is FK Tobol Kostanay vs Ordabasy?
FK Tobol Kostanay vs Ordabasy (Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 23 May 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Centralnyj Stadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
