FC Astana vs FK Tobol Kostanay prediction & analysis
79%
Footrivo pick
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: FC Astana to win @ 1.67 – our chance 66% vs 60% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultFC Astana to win ✓66% · @1.67
Double chanceFC Astana or draw ✓87% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.21
FC Astana vs FK Tobol Kostanay preview and prediction
The match
FK Tobol Kostanay travel to Astana Arena in the Premier League on Friday 20 March (15:00 WAT) to face FC Astana. FC Astana are 3rd with 54 points from 30 games (in the top four), while FK Tobol Kostanay sit 7th on 41 points (in the top half). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 2.2 for FC Astana and 0.9 for FK Tobol Kostanay. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score in 58% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: FC Astana 66%, draw 21%, FK Tobol Kostanay 13%.
Safer route: FC Astana or draw (87%) at 1.15.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.70.
Value angle: FC Astana to win at 1.67 – 66% on our numbers against 60% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: FC Astana 2–0 FK Tobol Kostanay. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
FC Astana66%fair 1.52 · @1.67
Draw21%fair 4.74 · @3.70
FK Tobol Kostanay13%fair 7.73 · @4.33
3.15Expected goals
2.23FC Astana xG
0.92FK Tobol Kostanay xG
58%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
2–110%
1–010%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: FC Astana 2.2 – 0.9 FK Tobol Kostanay expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FC Astana to win✓
66%
1.52
1.67 ▲
Double chance
FC Astana or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.72
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.75
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
1.36
Half-time result
FC Astana ahead at half-time✓
49%
2.04
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FC Astana / FT FC Astana✓
44%
2.27
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.21
–
Form
FC Astana – last 2
DW
16 Mar
@ Kaisar
0–0
D
8 Mar
vs Zhetysu
4–1
W
2.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
FK Tobol Kostanay – last 2
DL
16 Mar
vs Zhetysu
2–2
D
7 Mar
@ Aktobe
1–4
L
1.5Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FC Astana and FK Tobol Kostanay.
What is the prediction for FC Astana vs FK Tobol Kostanay?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win FC Astana vs FK Tobol Kostanay?
On our numbers FC Astana have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 21% and FK Tobol Kostanay 13%.
How many goals will there be in FC Astana vs FK Tobol Kostanay?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FC Astana vs FK Tobol Kostanay?
Our predicted score is FC Astana 2–0 FK Tobol Kostanay, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is FC Astana vs FK Tobol Kostanay?
FC Astana vs FK Tobol Kostanay (Premier League) kicks off on Friday 20 March 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Astana Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
