Sturt Lions vs Adelaide City preview and prediction
The match
Sturt Lions host Adelaide City in the South Australia NPL on Saturday 18 April, with kick-off at 06:30 (WAT) at Karinya Reserve.
Form guide
Sturt Lions's last 5: LLWLW Most recently they lost to Playford City Patriots 1–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.5 per game.
Adelaide City's last 5: WWDDW Most recently they beat Para Hills Knights 3–1 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.8 goals a game.
Adelaide City arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.2 goals: 1.6 for Sturt Lions and 2.6 for Adelaide City. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 79% likely and both teams score in 68% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sturt Lions 22%, draw 17%, Adelaide City 61%.
Both teams to score: yes (68%) at 1.36.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 68% chance at odds of 1.36. Predicted score: Sturt Lions 1–2 Adelaide City. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sturt Lions22%fair 4.57 · @3.60
Draw17%fair 5.73 · @3.90
Adelaide City61%fair 1.65 · @1.73
4.17Expected goals
1.55Sturt Lions xG
2.62Adelaide City xG
68%Both score
79%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–28%
1–37%
2–26%
1–16%
2–36%
0–25%
From our goals model: Sturt Lions 1.6 – 2.6 Adelaide City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Adelaide City to win✗
61%
1.65
1.73
Double chance
Either team to win✓
83%
1.21
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
68%
1.47
1.36
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
92%
1.09
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
79%
1.27
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
60%
1.67
–
Half-time result
Adelaide City ahead at half-time✗
47%
2.13
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Adelaide City / FT Adelaide City✗
40%
2.51
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.17
–
Form
Sturt Lions – last 6
LLWLWW
11 Apr
@ Playford City Patriots
1–2
L
28 Mar
vs West Torrens Birkalla
2–4
L
21 Mar
@ Para Hills Knights
5–0
W
14 Mar
vs MetroStars
0–1
L
7 Mar
vs West Adelaide
4–3
W
28 Feb
@ White City Woodville
3–1
W
2.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Adelaide City – last 6
WWDDWW
11 Apr
@ Para Hills Knights
3–1
W
28 Mar
vs Adelaide Comets
4–1
W
21 Mar
@ MetroStars
2–2
D
14 Mar
vs Adelaide United II
2–2
D
7 Mar
@ Croydon Kings
4–0
W
28 Feb
vs West Adelaide
2–1
W
2.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sturt Lions and Adelaide City.
What is the prediction for Sturt Lions vs Adelaide City?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Sturt Lions vs Adelaide City?
On our numbers Sturt Lions have a 22% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Adelaide City 61%.
How many goals will there be in Sturt Lions vs Adelaide City?
We expect about 4.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 79% likely and both teams score 68% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sturt Lions vs Adelaide City?
Our predicted score is Sturt Lions 1–2 Adelaide City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.2 goals in total.
When is Sturt Lions vs Adelaide City?
Sturt Lions vs Adelaide City (South Australia NPL) kicks off on Saturday 18 April 2026 at 06:30 (West Africa Time) at Karinya Reserve.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
South Australia NPL · Australia · Karinya Reserve
Para Hills Knights0
Campbelltown City5
MetroStars3
FK Beograd0