Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.75 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.75Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultCaxias to win ✗66% · @1.75
Double chanceCaxias or draw ✓86% · @1.12
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓56% · @1.53
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · @1.14
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗20% · fair 5.04
Caxias vs Floresta preview and prediction
The match
Caxias host Floresta in the Serie C on Saturday 11 July, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT) at Estadio Francisco Stedile. Caxias are 14th with 25 points from 19 games, while Floresta sit 3rd on 5 points. A gap of 20 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Caxias's last 5: WDDLW Most recently they beat Ferroviária 1–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Floresta's last 5: DWLLW Most recently they drew with Guarani Campinas 0–0 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.6 for Caxias and 0.5 for Floresta. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 65% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Betting angles
Win chances: Caxias 66%, draw 20%, Floresta 14%.
Both teams to score: no (56%) at 1.53.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Caxias to win – a 66% chance at odds of 1.75, above our fair price of 1.53, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Caxias 1–0 Floresta. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Caxias66%fair 1.53 · @1.75
Draw20%fair 4.90 · @3.10
Floresta14%fair 7.11 · @4.75
2.06Expected goals
1.55Caxias xG
0.50Floresta xG
44%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–020%
2–015%
0–013%
1–110%
3–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Caxias 1.6 – 0.5 Floresta expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Caxias to win✗
66%
1.53
1.75 ▲
Double chance
Caxias or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.12
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
56%
1.78
1.53
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
62%
1.62
1.50
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
65%
1.53
1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
1.14
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Caxias / FT Caxias✗
39%
2.58
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
20%
5.04
–
Form
Caxias – last 6
WDDLWD
5 Jul
@ Ferroviária
1–0
W
30 Jun
vs Anápolis
1–1
D
21 Jun
vs Maringá
1–1
D
13 Jun
@ Guarani Campinas
1–2
L
30 May
vs Ituano
2–1
W
23 May
@ Maranhão
0–0
D
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Floresta – last 6
DWLLWL
5 Jul
@ Guarani Campinas
0–0
D
27 Jun
vs Barra
2–1
W
21 Jun
@ Brusque
1–2
L
14 Jun
vs Figueirense
1–2
L
30 May
vs Confiança
1–0
W
26 May
@ Paysandu
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Caxias and Floresta.
Our pick is Caxias to win with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Caxias vs Floresta?
On our numbers Caxias have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Floresta 14%.
How many goals will there be in Caxias vs Floresta?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Caxias vs Floresta?
Our predicted score is Caxias 1–0 Floresta, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Caxias vs Floresta?
Caxias vs Floresta (Serie C) kicks off on Saturday 11 July 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Francisco Stedile.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
