Good pick · fair odds 1.58 · bookmaker 1.55 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.55Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultFerroviária to win ✗48% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.47
Ferroviária vs Caxias preview and prediction
The match
The Serie C sees Ferroviária take on Caxias on Sunday 5 July, kicking off at 00:30 (WAT) at Arena Fonte Luminosa. Ferroviária are 1st with 11 points from 6 games, while Caxias sit 14th on 25 points. A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Ferroviária's last 5: LWWDW Most recently they lost to AO Itabaiana 0–1 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Caxias's last 5: DDLWD Most recently they drew with Anápolis 1–1 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Ferroviária arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.2 for Ferroviária and 0.8 for Caxias. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 63% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 63% chance at odds of 1.55. Predicted score: Ferroviária 1–0 Caxias. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ferroviária48%fair 2.08 · @2.05
Draw22%fair 4.47 · @3.10
Caxias30%fair 3.37 · @3.55
2.05Expected goals
1.20Ferroviária xG
0.85Caxias xG
52%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
1–113%
0–013%
0–111%
2–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: Ferroviária 1.2 – 0.8 Caxias expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ferroviária to win✗
48%
2.08
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.94
1.95
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
63%
1.60
1.44
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
63%
1.58
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
1.18
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
49%
2.04
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ferroviária / FT Ferroviária✗
25%
3.94
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.47
–
Form
Ferroviária – last 6
LWWDWW
27 Jun
@ AO Itabaiana
0–1
L
21 Jun
vs Inter De Limeira
2–0
W
16 Jun
vs Barra
1–0
W
31 May
@ Santa Cruz
1–1
D
24 May
@ Amazonas
2–1
W
17 May
vs Brusque
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Caxias – last 6
DDLWDW
30 Jun
vs Anápolis
1–1
D
21 Jun
vs Maringá
1–1
D
13 Jun
@ Guarani Campinas
1–2
L
30 May
vs Ituano
2–1
W
23 May
@ Maranhão
0–0
D
17 May
vs Paysandu
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ferroviária and Caxias.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Ferroviária vs Caxias?
On our numbers Ferroviária have a 48% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Caxias 30%.
How many goals will there be in Ferroviária vs Caxias?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ferroviária vs Caxias?
Our predicted score is Ferroviária 1–0 Caxias, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Ferroviária vs Caxias?
Ferroviária vs Caxias (Serie C) kicks off on Sunday 5 July 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena Fonte Luminosa.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
