Value bet: Atlético Choloma to win @ 1.80 – our chance 63% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAtlético Choloma to win ✗63% · @1.80
Double chanceAtlético Choloma or draw ✗85% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗11% · fair 9.13
Atlético Choloma vs Génesis preview and prediction
The match
Génesis travel to Estadio Ruben Deras in the Liga Nacional on Wednesday 25 March (02:30 WAT) to face Atlético Choloma. Atlético Choloma are 9th with 14 points from 14 games (in the bottom half), while Génesis sit 8th on 15 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Atlético Choloma's last 5: WDDLL Most recently they beat Lobos Upnfm 2–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Génesis's last 5: LDLWD Most recently they lost to Real Espana 1–2 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.4 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 2.0 for Atlético Choloma and 0.9 for Génesis. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 54% and both teams to score at 59%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Atlético Choloma 63%, draw 22%, Génesis 15%.
Safer route: Atlético Choloma or draw (85%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.65.
Value angle: Atlético Choloma to win at 1.80 – 63% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Atlético Choloma 2–0 Génesis. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atlético Choloma63%fair 1.60 · @1.80
Draw22%fair 4.46 · @3.45
Génesis15%fair 6.65 · @3.90
2.93Expected goals
2.03Atlético Choloma xG
0.90Génesis xG
59%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
1–011%
2–110%
1–110%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Atlético Choloma 2.0 – 0.9 Génesis expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atlético Choloma to win✗
63%
1.60
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Atlético Choloma or draw✗
85%
1.18
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.70
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
1.36
Half-time result
Atlético Choloma ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atlético Choloma / FT Atlético Choloma✗
41%
2.46
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
11%
9.13
–
Form
Atlético Choloma – last 6
WDDLLW
21 Mar
@ Lobos Upnfm
2–1
W
15 Mar
vs Juticalpa
1–1
D
11 Mar
vs CD Marathon
0–0
D
8 Mar
vs CD Motagua
1–3
L
26 Feb
@ CD Olimpia
0–3
L
22 Feb
vs Victoria
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Génesis – last 5
LDLWD
19 Mar
@ Real Espana
1–2
L
11 Mar
vs Olancho
0–0
D
2 Mar
vs Lobos Upnfm
0–2
L
27 Feb
@ CD Marathon
2–1
W
15 Feb
vs Platense FC
2–2
D
1.0Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
60%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atlético Choloma and Génesis.
What is the prediction for Atlético Choloma vs Génesis?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Atlético Choloma vs Génesis?
On our numbers Atlético Choloma have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Génesis 15%.
How many goals will there be in Atlético Choloma vs Génesis?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atlético Choloma vs Génesis?
Our predicted score is Atlético Choloma 2–0 Génesis, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Atlético Choloma vs Génesis?
Atlético Choloma vs Génesis (Liga Nacional) kicks off on Wednesday 25 March 2026 at 02:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Ruben Deras.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
