Lobos Upnfm vs Atlético Choloma prediction & analysis
79%
Footrivo pick
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Lobos Upnfm to win @ 1.85 – our chance 61% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLobos Upnfm to win ✗61% · @1.85
Double chanceEither team to win ✓85% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.07
Lobos Upnfm vs Atlético Choloma preview and prediction
The match
Atlético Choloma travel to Estadio Emilio Williams Agasse in the Liga Nacional on Saturday 21 March (01:00 WAT) to face Lobos Upnfm. Lobos Upnfm are 6th with 19 points from 14 games (in the top half), while Atlético Choloma sit 9th on 14 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Lobos Upnfm's last 5: LWWWL Most recently they lost to CD Motagua 0–2 away. They average 1.8 scored and 1.6 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Atlético Choloma's last 5: DDLLW Most recently they drew with Juticalpa 1–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Lobos Upnfm arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 1.9 for Lobos Upnfm and 1.0 for Atlético Choloma. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score in 61% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Lobos Upnfm 61%, draw 15%, Atlético Choloma 24%.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.55.
Value angle: Lobos Upnfm to win at 1.85 – 61% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Lobos Upnfm 1–1 Atlético Choloma. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lobos Upnfm61%fair 1.63 · @1.85
Draw15%fair 6.72 · @3.70
Atlético Choloma24%fair 4.21 · @3.40
2.96Expected goals
1.92Lobos Upnfm xG
1.04Atlético Choloma xG
61%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–110%
1–010%
2–110%
2–010%
3–16%
3–06%
From our goals model: Lobos Upnfm 1.9 – 1.0 Atlético Choloma expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lobos Upnfm to win✗
61%
1.63
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
85%
1.17
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.63
1.55
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.76
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
1.45
Half-time result
Lobos Upnfm ahead at half-time✗
42%
2.36
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lobos Upnfm / FT Lobos Upnfm✗
36%
2.75
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.07
–
Form
Lobos Upnfm – last 5
LWWWL
12 Mar
@ CD Motagua
0–2
L
9 Mar
vs Juticalpa
3–2
W
2 Mar
@ Génesis
2–0
W
27 Feb
vs Platense FC
1–0
W
21 Feb
@ Real Espana
3–4
L
1.8Scored / game
1.6Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Atlético Choloma – last 6
DDLLWL
15 Mar
vs Juticalpa
1–1
D
11 Mar
vs CD Marathon
0–0
D
8 Mar
vs CD Motagua
1–3
L
26 Feb
@ CD Olimpia
0–3
L
22 Feb
vs Victoria
2–1
W
15 Feb
@ Real Espana
1–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lobos Upnfm and Atlético Choloma.
What is the prediction for Lobos Upnfm vs Atlético Choloma?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Lobos Upnfm vs Atlético Choloma?
On our numbers Lobos Upnfm have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Atlético Choloma 24%.
How many goals will there be in Lobos Upnfm vs Atlético Choloma?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lobos Upnfm vs Atlético Choloma?
Our predicted score is Lobos Upnfm 1–1 Atlético Choloma, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Lobos Upnfm vs Atlético Choloma?
Lobos Upnfm vs Atlético Choloma (Liga Nacional) kicks off on Saturday 21 March 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Emilio Williams Agasse.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
