Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.92 – our chance 55% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCD Motagua to win ✓55% · @1.65
Double chanceCD Motagua or draw ✓80% · @1.12
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.92
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.16
CD Motagua vs Lobos Upnfm preview and prediction
The match
Lobos Upnfm travel to Estadio Nacional Jose de la Paz Herrera Ucles in the Liga Nacional on Thursday 12 March (00:15 WAT) to face CD Motagua. CD Motagua are 4th with 28 points from 14 games (in the top four), while Lobos Upnfm sit 6th on 19 points (in the top half).
Form guide
CD Motagua's last 5: WDWWD Most recently they beat Atlético Choloma 3–1 away. They average 1.6 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Lobos Upnfm's last 4: WWWL Most recently they beat Juticalpa 3–2 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.6 for CD Motagua and 0.8 for Lobos Upnfm. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: CD Motagua 55%, draw 25%, Lobos Upnfm 20%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.92.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.92 – 55% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.23. Predicted score: CD Motagua 1–0 Lobos Upnfm. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
CD Motagua55%fair 1.81 · @1.65
Draw25%fair 4.07 · @3.48
Lobos Upnfm20%fair 4.96 · @4.55
2.44Expected goals
1.60CD Motagua xG
0.84Lobos Upnfm xG
55%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
1–112%
2–011%
2–19%
0–09%
0–17%
From our goals model: CD Motagua 1.6 – 0.8 Lobos Upnfm expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
CD Motagua to win✓
55%
1.81
1.65
Double chance
CD Motagua or draw✓
80%
1.25
1.12
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.81
1.92 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.82
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.23
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT CD Motagua / FT CD Motagua✓
34%
2.97
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.16
–
Form
CD Motagua – last 5
WDWWD
8 Mar
@ Atlético Choloma
3–1
W
2 Mar
vs Olancho
1–1
D
26 Feb
@ Juticalpa
2–1
W
23 Feb
@ CD Olimpia
1–0
W
16 Feb
vs CD Marathon
1–1
D
1.6Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
80%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Lobos Upnfm – last 4
WWWL
9 Mar
vs Juticalpa
3–2
W
2 Mar
@ Génesis
2–0
W
27 Feb
vs Platense FC
1–0
W
21 Feb
@ Real Espana
3–4
L
2.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between CD Motagua and Lobos Upnfm.
What is the prediction for CD Motagua vs Lobos Upnfm?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.23.
Who will win CD Motagua vs Lobos Upnfm?
On our numbers CD Motagua have a 55% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Lobos Upnfm 20%.
How many goals will there be in CD Motagua vs Lobos Upnfm?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for CD Motagua vs Lobos Upnfm?
Our predicted score is CD Motagua 1–0 Lobos Upnfm, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is CD Motagua vs Lobos Upnfm?
CD Motagua vs Lobos Upnfm (Liga Nacional) kicks off on Thursday 12 March 2026 at 00:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nacional Jose de la Paz Herrera Ucles.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Victoria1