Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.05 – our chance 53% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Result9 de Octubre to win ✓68% · @1.42
Double chance9 de Octubre or draw ✓88% · @1.10
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓60% · fair 1.65
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓17% · fair 5.73
9 de Octubre vs 22 de Julio preview and prediction
The match
9 de Octubre host 22 de Julio in the Liga Pro Serie B on Saturday 25 July, with kick-off at 19:30 (WAT) at Estadio Modelo Alberto Spencer. 9 de Octubre are 3rd with 37 points from 22 games (in the top four), while 22 de Julio sit 11th on 15 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 22 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
9 de Octubre's last 5: DDDWD Most recently they drew with Cumbayá 0–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
22 de Julio's last 5: WLLDL Most recently they beat Gualaceo SC 1–0 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.8 for 9 de Octubre and 0.5 for 22 de Julio. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 40%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: 9 de Octubre 68%, draw 19%, 22 de Julio 12%.
Value angle: Under 2.5 goals at 2.05 – 53% on our numbers against 49% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was 9 de Octubre to win – a 68% chance at odds of 1.42. Predicted score: 9 de Octubre 1–0 22 de Julio. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
9 de Octubre68%fair 1.46 · @1.42
Draw19%fair 5.16 · @4.10
22 de Julio12%fair 8.12 · @5.50
2.31Expected goals
1.769 de Octubre xG
0.5522 de Julio xG
40%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
2–015%
0–010%
1–110%
3–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: 9 de Octubre 1.8 – 0.5 22 de Julio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
9 de Octubre to win✓
68%
1.46
1.42
Double chance
9 de Octubre or draw✓
88%
1.14
1.10
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
60%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
67%
1.49
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.90
2.05 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.26
–
Half-time result
9 de Octubre ahead at half-time✓
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT 9 de Octubre / FT 9 de Octubre✓
42%
2.37
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
17%
5.73
–
Form
9 de Octubre – last 6
DDDWDD
16 Jul
@ Cumbayá
0–0
D
11 Jul
vs Gualaceo SC
0–0
D
4 Jul
@ LDU Portoviejo
1–1
D
9 Jun
vs Cuniburo
2–1
W
3 Jun
@ Atletico FC
0–0
D
30 May
vs Deportivo Cuenca Juniors
3–3
D
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
22 de Julio – last 6
WLLDLW
18 Jul
@ Gualaceo SC
1–0
W
11 Jul
vs Cuniburo
0–1
L
2 Jul
@ Cumbayá
0–4
L
9 Jun
vs Atletico FC
0–0
D
6 Jun
@ Santo Domingo
0–1
L
30 May
vs San Antonio
2–0
W
0.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between 9 de Octubre and 22 de Julio.
What is the prediction for 9 de Octubre vs 22 de Julio?
Our pick is 9 de Octubre to win with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.42.
Who will win 9 de Octubre vs 22 de Julio?
On our numbers 9 de Octubre have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 19% and 22 de Julio 12%.
How many goals will there be in 9 de Octubre vs 22 de Julio?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 40% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for 9 de Octubre vs 22 de Julio?
Our predicted score is 9 de Octubre 1–0 22 de Julio, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is 9 de Octubre vs 22 de Julio?
9 de Octubre vs 22 de Julio (Liga Pro Serie B) kicks off on Saturday 25 July 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Modelo Alberto Spencer.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
