Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Gualaceo SC to win @ 1.91 – our chance 59% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultGualaceo SC to win ✗59% · @1.91
Double chanceGualaceo SC or draw ✓84% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓53% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓72% · fair 1.39
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗21% · fair 4.74
El Nacional vs Gualaceo SC preview and prediction
The match
The Liga Pro Serie B sees El Nacional take on Gualaceo SC on Friday 24 July, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT). El Nacional are 12th with 12 points from 22 games (in the bottom three), while Gualaceo SC sit 7th on 29 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 17 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
El Nacional's last 5: LLLDL Most recently they lost to Cuniburo 1–2 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Gualaceo SC's last 5: LDWWL Most recently they lost to 22 de Julio 0–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Gualaceo SC arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.9 goals: 0.5 for El Nacional and 1.3 for Gualaceo SC. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 72% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: El Nacional 16%, draw 25%, Gualaceo SC 59%.
Safer route: Gualaceo SC or draw (84%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: no (53%) at 1.73.
Value angle: Gualaceo SC to win at 1.91 – 59% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Gualaceo SC or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.19, so there is value in it. Predicted score: El Nacional 0–1 Gualaceo SC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
El Nacional16%fair 6.35 · @3.80
Draw25%fair 4.01 · @3.00
Gualaceo SC59%fair 1.69 · @1.91
1.85Expected goals
0.51El Nacional xG
1.34Gualaceo SC xG
47%Both score
28%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–121%
0–016%
0–214%
1–111%
1–08%
1–27%
From our goals model: El Nacional 0.5 – 1.3 Gualaceo SC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Gualaceo SC to win✗
59%
1.69
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Gualaceo SC or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
53%
1.90
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
55%
1.81
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
50%
1.99
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Gualaceo SC / FT Gualaceo SC✗
34%
2.93
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
21%
4.74
–
Form
El Nacional – last 6
LLLDLL
15 Jul
@ Cuniburo
1–2
L
8 Jul
vs Cumbayá
0–1
L
2 Jul
@ Atletico FC
0–3
L
11 Jun
vs Santo Domingo
0–0
D
7 Jun
@ Deportivo Cuenca Juniors
1–4
L
31 May
vs LDU Portoviejo
0–1
L
0.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Gualaceo SC – last 6
LDWWLW
18 Jul
vs 22 de Julio
0–1
L
11 Jul
@ 9 de Octubre
0–0
D
1 Jul
@ Cuniburo
2–1
W
10 Jun
vs Cumbayá
1–0
W
6 Jun
@ LDU Portoviejo
0–1
L
3 Jun
vs Mushuc Runa SC
1–0
W
0.7Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between El Nacional and Gualaceo SC.
What is the prediction for El Nacional vs Gualaceo SC?
Our pick is Gualaceo SC or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win El Nacional vs Gualaceo SC?
On our numbers El Nacional have a 16% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Gualaceo SC 59%.
How many goals will there be in El Nacional vs Gualaceo SC?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 28% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for El Nacional vs Gualaceo SC?
Our predicted score is El Nacional 0–1 Gualaceo SC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is El Nacional vs Gualaceo SC?
El Nacional vs Gualaceo SC (Liga Pro Serie B) kicks off on Friday 24 July 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
