Value bet: Cumbayá to win @ 2.60 – our chance 47% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +23%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCumbayá to win ✓47% · @2.60
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.36
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓54% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓13% · fair 7.48
El Nacional vs Cumbayá preview and prediction
The match
Cumbayá travel to face El Nacional in the Liga Pro Serie B on Wednesday 8 July (21:00 WAT). El Nacional are 12th with 12 points from 22 games (in the bottom three), while Cumbayá sit 10th on 26 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
El Nacional's last 5: LDLLL Most recently they lost to Atletico FC 0–3 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Cumbayá's last 5: WLDWD Most recently they beat 22 de Julio 4–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Cumbayá arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.0 for El Nacional and 1.3 for Cumbayá. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 46%.
Betting angles
Win chances: El Nacional 29%, draw 24%, Cumbayá 47%.
Both teams to score: no (54%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Cumbayá to win at 2.60 – 47% on our numbers against 38% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 54% chance at odds of 1.83. Predicted score: El Nacional 0–1 Cumbayá. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
El Nacional29%fair 3.42 · @2.60
Draw24%fair 4.25 · @2.90
Cumbayá47%fair 2.12 · @2.60
2.30Expected goals
0.97El Nacional xG
1.33Cumbayá xG
46%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–113%
1–113%
0–010%
1–010%
0–29%
1–29%
From our goals model: El Nacional 1.0 – 1.3 Cumbayá expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cumbayá to win✓
47%
2.12
2.60 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.36
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
54%
1.86
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
67%
1.49
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.68
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cumbayá / FT Cumbayá✗
26%
3.80
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✓
13%
7.48
–
Form
El Nacional – last 6
LDLLLL
2 Jul
@ Atletico FC
0–3
L
11 Jun
vs Santo Domingo
0–0
D
7 Jun
@ Deportivo Cuenca Juniors
1–4
L
31 May
vs LDU Portoviejo
0–1
L
29 May
vs Universidad Catolica
1–4
L
24 May
@ San Antonio
0–1
L
0.3Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Cumbayá – last 6
WLDWDD
2 Jul
vs 22 de Julio
4–0
W
10 Jun
@ Gualaceo SC
0–1
L
4 Jun
@ Cuniburo
1–1
D
30 May
vs Ind. Juniors
1–0
W
23 May
@ Santo Domingo
0–0
D
13 May
vs LDU Portoviejo
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between El Nacional and Cumbayá.
What is the prediction for El Nacional vs Cumbayá?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.83.
Who will win El Nacional vs Cumbayá?
On our numbers El Nacional have a 29% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Cumbayá 47%.
How many goals will there be in El Nacional vs Cumbayá?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for El Nacional vs Cumbayá?
Our predicted score is El Nacional 0–1 Cumbayá, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is El Nacional vs Cumbayá?
El Nacional vs Cumbayá (Liga Pro Serie B) kicks off on Wednesday 8 July 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
