Value bet: Palmeiras to win @ 1.71 – our chance 65% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultPalmeiras to win ✓65% · @1.71
Double chancePalmeiras or draw ✓85% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.78
Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo preview and prediction
The match
Palmeiras host Sao Paulo in the Paulista A1 on Monday 2 March, with kick-off at 00:30 (WAT) at Arena Barueri.
Form guide
Palmeiras's last 4: WWDW Most recently they beat Fluminense 2–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.5 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.8 for Palmeiras and 0.7 for Sao Paulo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 51%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Palmeiras 65%, draw 21%, Sao Paulo 15%.
Safer route: Palmeiras or draw (85%) at 1.15.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.90.
Value angle: Palmeiras to win at 1.71 – 65% on our numbers against 58% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Palmeiras 1–0 Sao Paulo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Palmeiras65%fair 1.54 · @1.71
Draw21%fair 4.84 · @3.50
Sao Paulo15%fair 6.88 · @5.00
2.51Expected goals
1.81Palmeiras xG
0.70Sao Paulo xG
51%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–013%
1–110%
2–19%
0–08%
3–08%
From our goals model: Palmeiras 1.8 – 0.7 Sao Paulo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Palmeiras to win✓
65%
1.54
1.71 ▲
Double chance
Palmeiras or draw✓
85%
1.17
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.96
1.90
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.42
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.85
1.75
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.28
Half-time result
Palmeiras ahead at half-time✓
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Palmeiras / FT Palmeiras✓
40%
2.48
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.78
–
Form
Palmeiras – last 4
WWDW
26 Feb
vs Fluminense
2–1
W
22 Feb
vs Capivariano
4–0
W
16 Feb
vs Guarani Campinas
1–1
D
13 Feb
@ Internacional
3–1
W
2.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
75%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Sao Paulo – last 2
WW
25 Feb
@ Coritiba
1–0
W
16 Feb
@ Ponte Preta
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Palmeiras and Sao Paulo.
What is the prediction for Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo?
On our numbers Palmeiras have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Sao Paulo 15%.
How many goals will there be in Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo?
Our predicted score is Palmeiras 1–0 Sao Paulo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo?
Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo (Paulista A1) kicks off on Monday 2 March 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena Barueri.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Paulista A1 · Brazil · Arena Barueri
